Hoffman Boos Really About Franchise

The recent advent of boos directed at future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman are disheartening. FF does not support this behavior - not one bit. With that out of the way - we suggest that Hoffy was not the target of the boo birds. It was the organization. Michael Barrett figured it out in the previously linked Union-Tribute article:

I thought they were booing all of us.

Mr. Barrett - go to the head of the class. There is something deeply wrong with the 2008 ball club. There is plenty of blame to go around. The bullpen has been awful. Hitting has been atrocious - at times it seems like hitters actually think that goal of the game is to strikeout more than the other team. Managerial decisions have been all over the place. Remember when Josh Bard could hit? We do, and we don't think it is a coincidence that the catchers and bullpen have suffered from an American League-style of managing where certain players are called upon far too often. The front office also plays a prominent role. But none of these gripes is the real problem with the team.

There isn't enough anger from players, coaches, or the front office over the team's lackluster play. It's true that Kevin Towers got angry a while back (and the team actually seemed to respond). But the reaction to boo birds seems to cut to the heart of the matter. To his credit, Hoffman said the right thing:

"I've got to make a better pitch"

Meanwhile, a number of other team members commented that the boo-ers basically lacked class. This is true. But those folks all need to take a page from Hoffman's book and focus on improving. FF believes that team doesn't have a fire lit under their collective butts. If they do, maybe that should express it more. Fans may still boo, but at least we'd all know that the players are more frustrated than the fans. About their, play, not manners.

At Least They're Consistant

The San Diego Padres lost yet another chance to pick up a game in the weak NL West to remain 8 games back and drop to 14 games under .500. The Friars 3-1 defeat at the hands of the Twins was not unlike countless other games this season. Tuesday's game marked off all the usual boxes to insure that Frair fans know they are watching the Padres.

The checklist typically includes:

Wasted solid outing by a starter check (Jake Peavy's 6 innings and 1 run earned him a no decision)

Total lack of offense check (1 run on 7 singles and failures in the hit and run and bunting aspects of the sport, not to mention the ridiculously high strikeout rate)

Bullpen collapse check (Trevor Hoffman gave up homers with 2 outs on consecutive pitches in the 9th to take his 5th loss of the season)

Managerial short comings check (Hoffman does not pitch well in non save situations, never has. FF knows this why is Black slow on the uptake?)

Catchers inability to control baserunners wow (Not an issue in Tuesday's game, infact Barrett threw out a runner to end the 8th)

Wolf, Friars Beat L.A.

Randy Wolf paced the Padres with an excellent outing to a 4-1 win - holding the hated Dodgers to just one run over seven innings against nine punch outs. Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman each tossed scoreless innings, earning a hold and save, respectively. Each of the hermanos Gonzales notched an RBI, with the older, slimmer version (Edgar) knocking a first inning bomb out to deep left center. Khalil Greene added a bomb into the Petco sandbox, with Jody Gerut knocking in an always important insurance run in the bottom of the eighth, while facing a lefty with a 0-2 count. All together, things have begun to look up to for the Friars, who regain staff ace, Jake Peavy, in Thursday afternoon's contest. FF is mildly optimistic - but still questions Chase Headley's absence from left field. Of course, in a couple of years his lessor amount of MLB service time will play in the club's favor (and we can only assume that this is the reason for his extended stay in AAA Portland).

WWW: Friars Win 3rd Straight

Randy Wolf and Padres capitalized on their opportunities Friday night, claiming their third consecutive wins - this time a 2-1 final at the expense of perennial Cy Young award winning Johan Santana. Timely RBI singles by Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff in the sixth blunted the Met's lone run scored in the top half of the same frame. Randy Wolf's 7 solid innings were complemented perfectly by Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman, accounting for a win, hold and save, respectably. The trio of consecutive wins marks just the second time in the 2008 campaign that the Padres have strung together more than two wins.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

Kouz Pumps Up Pads

Kevin Kouzmanoff cashed in a very strong Greg Maddux outing in the bottom of the eighth inning, with a go ahead sacrifice fly to plate Brian Giles. Trevor Hoffman would strike out three in the ninth to save the 2-1 win, ending the Cubbies 9 game winning streak (the longest in MLB for 2008). Maddux allowed just 3 hits over 7 innings, with Heath Bell tacking on a scoreless eighth inning to notch the win. Scotty Hairston flexed his muscle to lead off the game for the Friars, knocking home run number 8 on the season. The Frairs would squander men in scoring position with zero or one out in the sixth and seventh before Giles led off the eighth frame with an opposite field double. Giles then took third on a relatively shallow fly to left center, taking advantage of Alfonso Soriano's weak arm. This heady base running would prove to be the difference in the game, as Kouzmanoff launched a fly ball to deep center, allowing Giles to easily beat former Friar Jim Edmonds' throw to the plate.

Padres Power Surge at Petco

The Padres picked up a little mojo Tuesday night, with a Petco power surge in the form of back-to-back bombs from Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff to break a 2-2 tie in the seventh. Trevor Hoffman rebounded from recent outings to secure the 4-2 win and a save (his 10th). Kouzmanoff's homer was a no-doubter, landing in the second deck in left center field. Earlier, Michael Barrett plated the first pair of runs with a based loaded single, erasing the two run lead created by a first inning Arron Boone homer. Whether this game is indicative of things to come or is just a Nationals-induced false-positive is tough to tell. But FF is hoping for the former and some entertaining ball over the rest of the season.

Notes:

• Eight Padres each collected a single hit in the win
• Khalil Greene uncharacteristically walked twice
• Brian Giles finished the day with a .301 average and is the only regular above the .300 mark.
  

Carlin Moves to 3-0

Luke Carlin is a rabbits foot for a struggling Friars team, moving to 3-0 as a starter with the club's 4-3 win over the Cubs on a rainy Tuesday evening. Shawn Estes made his first start out of the rotation's 5 hole, earning the win (the 100th of his career) while allowing 3 earned runs over 5 1/3 innings; he overcame a leadoff bomb from Alfonso Soriano and was then spelled by another excellent relief outing by Cla Meredith. Heath Bell bridged the 8th inning, handing the ball the Trevor Hoffman, who posted his 7th save of the season with crisply located fastballs. Khalil Greene provided the major jolt for Bud Black's club, a 3 run homer that added on to Jody Gerut's RBI double in the 4 run 4th. Edgar Gonzalez made his first major league start, playing a shaky hot corner, but pounding out a couple of solid knocks. Adrian's big (little) brother runs the bases hard, reminding FF of the kind of effort that Eric Owens once displayed at the Murph (Gerut also reminds us of Mr. Owens' hustle). In all, the Padres have turned thing around to provide a glimmer of a hope for restoring the seemingly lost season, winning three of their last four.

Maddux Wins #350; Hoffman Saves #530

The Friars broke their losing streak behind fantastic pitching from Greg Maddux, an Adrian Gonzalez 3 run blast and Hoffman shutting the door on the pesky Rockies. Maddux finally grabbed his 350th career win by pitching 6 innings, allowing one unearned run on an uncharacteristic error by the 17-time Gold Glove winner. He left the game with a 3-1 lead, staked by Gonzalez's bomb after Tad Iguchi and Brian Giles walks. Cla Meredith came in an pitched a very effective inning, following by a shaky outing by Heath Bell, who had command problems while allowing a run in a inning worked. With Hells Bells tolling, Hoffman showed renewed command with 87 MPH heat and typical change ups.

Carlin Starts
Luke Carlin caught the future Hall of Famers, Maddux and Hoffman. He looked spry behind the plate, but was overwhelmed at the plate, punching out 3 times. All told, the Friars struck out 12 times.

Base Stealing Wonders
The Padres managed stolen bases from Iguchi, Giles, Khalil Greene and Scott Hairston. In fact, the Padres treated the Rockies on the basepaths much as their have been treated by the league over the last couple of years.

Lineup Shakeup
Bud Black shuffled the lineup, moving Jody Gerut (who hit several balls hard, with anything falling) into the leadoff spot while shifting Giles to the 3 hole. Kevin Kouzmanoff hit 5th, with Paul McAnulty hitting 6th, followed by Greene and Carlin.

Padres Pick Up Series By One

The Friars squeezed by the Dodgers 1-0 on a hot but smog-less Sunday afternoon game at Chavez Ravine to win the weekend series two games to one. Greg Maddux left the 95 degree heat after tossing 67 pitches over 5 innings of two hit ball, striking out a pair against a single walk. The heart of bullpen performed as you'd expect on paper, tossing four zeros on the board across Joe Thatcher, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman, respectively. The Padres lone run came on a moderately deep fly ball on a high change piece in the forth to Paul McAnulty, who again spelled Brian Giles. For the second consecutive game the Friars lone run was the result of a rare extra base hit. After Jim Edmonds walked to lead off the inning, shortstop Khalil Greene doubled Edmonds to third, where McAnulty would later convert him. This was the lone extra base knock for Bud Black's club.

Bell's Velocity Remains a Concern
As has been mentioned over the course of the season, Bell is regularly around 90 mph this in 2008 after typically hitting mid-to-high 90s in 2007. So far Bell is getting the job done with his less electric stuff, posting a 1.04 ERA over 8.2 innings, but he's notched just two strikeouts in the young season. FF is a big fan of Bell's, but we are concerned about how the decreased velocity bodes for his future health. We've many times noted the front office's love affair with relievers that post high strikeout to walk ratios. Last year, Bell put up nearly 10 K/BB while logging an out short of 94 innings over 81 outing, so it is unclear how the dichotomy between his reduced stuff and results will settle with the club in the long run.

Peavy Off, But Singles Lead the Way

Jake Peavy clearly didn't have his best pitches Friday night, but his mindset pushed him through his third quality start - and win - of the season. The offense picked up Peavy with a barrage of singles and a lone double to plate seven runs. Six Friars amassed multiple hit games with Kevin Kouzmanoff leading the way with a trio out of the cleanup spot. Callix Crabbe showed his impact in the eighth innings while pinch running for the ever-reliable Tony Clark. He easily stole second, then scored on Tad Iguchi's dribbler through the 3.5 hole. Given the continued struggles of future hall of famer Trevor Hoffman, who was again touched up for a run, despite earning a save, these kinds of insurance runs cannot be understated. The bullpen's other slow starter, Joe Thatcher also coughed up another run.

Tossed
Scotty Hairston threw a strike to Josh Bard to erase Dodger Russell Martin, who came into the plate with a half-hearted shoulder. Bard and Martin exchanged pats on their midsection and butt, respectively, to show no ill will.

Coach Hill Would Be Proud
Iguchi continues to impress FF by playing ball the right way (for you PLHS alumni out there, that means Coach Hill's way). On a run-and-hit, Iguchi practically threw his bat to protect flat-of-foot Brian Giles at second.

The Ghost of Bruce Bochey
Bud Black was momentarily possessed by Bruce Bochey at Dodger Stadium, instructing Jake Peavy to forgo a sacrifice bunt attempt to instead ground into an inning ending double play in the second.

Friar Rotation Round Up 2: Starts 6-10

The starting rotation continued their torrid pace during the second pass though the quintet, posting an astonishing 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 5 quality starts. Tough to complain about that kind of production from the pitchers that shoulder the load for the entire staff. That said, while the winning percentage in quality starts from 1984 to 1991 was .674, the Friars posted a .400 over their last five games and just .500 for the 10 quality starts in 2008 (effectively). A starter has yet to produce a non-quality start, yet the team has just 5 wins to show for it. Nobody should get their underwear in a bunch at this juncture, but it certainly isn't encouraging.

While many expected the team to struggle at bat, not too many could have foreseen the perennially solid bullpen's swoon. Expected to the heart of the relief corps, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Cla Meredith and Joe Thatcher have taken all 5 team losses to go with a 5.59 ERA. In fact, both Thatcher and Hoffman has allowed more earned runs in 4 and 3 2/3 innings, respectively, than Greg Maddux has in 13. FF expects the pen to right its ship and the rotation to fall a little bit from its near perfect performance. The real question will be if the offense can provide enough run support to make the stellar staff's stuff stick.

Friars Take 3 Of 4 From Houston

The San Diego Padres opened the season winning their first series taking 3 of 4 from the Astros. Randy Wolf made his Padres debut and showed well, tossing 6 innings allowing just 1 run on 4 hits while striking out 5. Wolf left with a 2-1 lead courtesy of a first inning, 2 run blast off the bat of Kevin Kouzmanoff. Enrique Gonzalez surrendered the tying run in the 7th, but the Padres' Scott Hairston started a rally with his third hit of the game, a triple past Astros center fielder Jose Cruz. He was immediately picked up by Tad Iguchi for the go ahead and winning run. Trevor Hoffman was aggressive in retiring the Astros in order on just 8 pitches, coaxing 3 groundouts.

Pads Points:

The Pads welcome in the LA Dodgers for a weekend series beginning tomorrow with Justin Germano taking the hill on Friday.

The premier matchup this weekend will be a Saturday afternoon tilt featuring staff aces Jake Peavy and Brad Penny.

Scott Hairston hit out of the leadoff spot Thursday and responded by getting on base all 4 plate appearances by walking and falling a homer shy of the Padres first ever cycle.

Keving Kouzmanoff added 2 hits as he was slotted in the cleanup spot for the first time this season with Gonzalez flip-flipping with him.

Callix Crabbe made his MLB debut flying out to left in the 8th.

Jody Gerut started in RF giving Brian Giles an extended rest for his surgically repaired right knee.

Tadihito Iguchi and Heath Bell teamed up for a nice play to end the 8th; with Adrian Gonzalez diving after the ball, Iguchi calmly fielded the ball on the outfield grass and delivered a strike to Bell who was covering the bag.

Hoffman Clutches Defeat Out Of The Jaws Of Victory

In an all too familiar scene Trevor Hoffman and the Padres were one pitch away from taking the first 3 games of the season against the Astros. With a 6-5 lead and two quick outs, the future Hall Of Fame closer walked Jose Cruz, Jr in front of consecutive singles, the later tying the contest, and a 3 run homer by Lance Berkman. Enrique Gonzalez made his Padre debut in recording the final out of the 9th, but the damage had already been done. The Astros picked up their first win of the season defeating San Diego 9-6.

The Friars battled back after falling into an early 3-0 hole thanks in large part to homers by Scott Hairston (falling in love with Scotty) and Adrian Gonzalez. Brian Giles had a huge game with 3 hits and the go ahead sac fly in the 8th. Michael Barrett earned some FF ink with both his bat and his aggressive base running.

With the NL West expected to be such a tight race, it is tough to lose any game late. Wednesday night's lose just stings a lot more due to the way Hoffman struggled down the stretch last season. Padre fans and FF need to cut Hoffman some slack, as at years end he will (most likely) have compiled his 40 saves with just a handful of outcomes like tonight. The great thing about baseball is that playing tomorrow allows players, fans, and even bloggers the right to have a short memory ~ just like the one of a great relief pitcher.

FF Facts:

The Thursday afternoon affair will highlight the Padre debut of southpaw starter Randy Wolf.

The Padres first error of the season was costly as a low throw across the diamond by Kouzmanoff allowed the first Houston run to cross the plate.

The Padres continue to get great production out of the left field position and catcher. Justin Huber had a knock in his first Padres at bat and made a terrific running catch near the wall in left center. His mid game replacement, P Mac, contributed with a sharp single in his first AB as a pinch hitter. As noted above, Michael Barrett picked up where Josh Bard left off and the Friars have 3 multiple hit games out of their backstops.

Second Guessing:

Well, first guessing really ~ I called for this prior to the outcome of the at bat by Tony Clark. In the bottom half of the 6th inning after Barrett and Paul McAnulty reached base with no outs, manager Bud Black elected to stay with Tony Clark to pinch for the pitchers spot. FF wondered why (in a tie game) Black wouldn't opt for Callix Crabbe to lay down a sacrifice bunt to move 2 runners into scoring position with the top of the lineup right behind him (this would also keep Clark available for the later innings). Unfortunately Clark sharply wrapped into a twin killing. Giles and Iguchi each singled and the Friars came away with just 1 run.

FF has also noticed too strong a reliance on too few pitchers in the bullpen, we were surprised to see Joe Thatcher come out to start the 7th, especially with the right hand hitting Mark Loretta lurking in the Houston dugout to pinch hit for the Astros...Loretta struck out, so maybe we at FF don't know everything! However, there is a major concern of tiring out the Padres bullpen at some point with these constant outings.

Hairston Launch Humbles Houston

The Padres have begun the 2008 season with two straight victories over the Houston Astros. The offense wasn't clicking on all cylinders as it was on opening night, but the Friars found Scott Hairston's 2 run blast enough to hold off Houston 2-1. The Padres had 2007 All Star, Chris Young, toeing the rubber on Tuesday and he battled through some control problems (5 walks in 5 2/3) to earn his first victory of the year. Young loaded the bases full of 'Stros after a base hit and 2 walks in the 6th. Skipper Bud Black turned the ball over to Joe Thatcher who got out of the jam after walking in the only Astro run of the game (and season). The lefty Thatcher retired the first batter of the 7th inning before giving way to side-winder Cla Meredith who cruised through the 2 batters he faced. Heath Bell worked a perfect 8th inning to set up baseball's all time saves leader in the top half of the 9th. Trevor Hoffman took his first steps into game action this year to the familiar sound of AC/DC's "Hells Bells". The Padres closer struck out the first and last batter he faced while working around a two out infield single.

Padres Points:

The Padres hand the ball to future Hall Of Fame hurler Greg Maddux on Wednesday night, the crafty right hander will attempt to keep pace with the top 2 pitchers in the Friar rotation.

Khalil Greene and Josh Bard each had multiple hit games with the Friar shortstop collecting 3, while the Padre backstop had 2. Brian Giles remains the only Padres regular without a hit through 2 games.

The Padres team ERA jumped all the way to 0.50 to kickoff the new year, Tuesday's 2-1 victory will be one of many close, low scoring affairs in 2008.

The Padres had a chance to extend their lead in the bottom half of the 8th (against former Friar Doug Brocail) after a 2 out Bard single sent Scott Hairston to second, an infield single by Paul McAnulty would have loaded the bases for a pinch hitter (presumably Tony Clark). Unfortunately, Scott Hairston got caught venturing too far off third after appearing to assume that P Mac would be called out at 1st.

Padres figure to start newly acquired Justin Huber in left tomorrow as the Astros will start a southpaw on the hill. Pads fans also figure to get their first view of the year of catcher Michael Barrett.

All time saves leader Trevor Hoffman is fashioning a longer hair style than in years past, reports out of spring training were that Mrs. Hoffman likes the longer locks.

Cla Corrals Cactus Competition

Cla Meredith was nothing short of a phenom in 2006 while allowing 6 earned runs in 50 2/3 innings and posting 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He even managed to hold opponents scoreless for one out shy of 34 consecutive innings. Last spring, he responded by allowing 8 runs in 8 1/3 innings. Much was made of this precipitous decline, particularly that the dessert air affecting his sink, but all expected a rebound in the pitcher-friendly parks of the NL West. Then the season came and his ERA increased more than three-fold to a still respectable, but unspectacular 3.50, while his WHIP nearly doubled and his strikeout to walk ratio fell slightly to 3.47-1. The new year has Friar fans hearkening back to 2006 as Cla has rebounded to post a 1.80 ERA to go with a 9-1 strikeout to walk ratio and 0.80 WHIP. His 5 innings pitched is certainly a small sample size, but FF is encouraged by what could once again be a shutdown 7th, 8th, 9th combination in the '08 bullpen, with Meredith, Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman, respectively. A rebounded Meredith will also take some pressure off of Bell, who logged more than 13 innings in excess of Cla on 2007, despite pitching in nearly the same number of contests. The 'pen will need to be sharp to help maintain the meager leads the offense is likely to generate.

Predicted Padres Pitching Prowess

The Friars are keeping the faith that their vaunted pitching staff can carry the team. That said, we thought it would be interesting to check out how the Bill James Handbook 2008 projects the staff to perform. For the club's presumed optimal starting rotation, the Handbook breaks it down as follows (Pitcher - W/L/ERA/IP/WHIP/K):

• Jake Peavy - 15 8 3.23 212 1.17 217


• Chris Young - 13 8 3.34 186 1.18 166


• Greg Maddux - 13 9 3.60 200 1.20 121


• Randy Wolf - 5 6 4.32 100 1.37 81


• Mark Prior - 5 4 3.60 75 1.23 85

Immediately striking is the similarity that the projections have in rotation spots one through three. Nobody appreciates Maddux's low walk rate more than FF, and we don't want to take anything away from him, but he hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 2003 season. Peavy's numbers seem overly skewed by his injury-marred 2006 campaign while the projection ignores Chris Young's iterative, season-by-season improvement trend (see graph below). Friar fans will have to hope for better returns than those suggested by the Handbook if they are to remain competitive in the NL West.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

A big part of the team's success will likely depend on the performance of the bullpen. Nobody puts together a better 'pen than Kevin Towers (if only he could do the same for right-handed power hitters, but I digress). Once again the projections seem a little high, this time looking at player - ERA/S/IP/WHIP/K per 9:

• Trevor Hoffman - 2.80 39 61 1.07 8.26


• Heath Bell - 3.10 1 83 1.16 9.70


• Cla Meredith - 3.51 0 82 1.22 6.91


• Kevin Cameron - 3.90 0 60 1.47 7.65


• Joe Thatcher - No Handbook project listed