Germano in Rotation for a Change

Big league pitchers need 3 solid pitches to be successful over the long run. In 2007, Justin Germano had a fantastic May, posting a 1.08 ERA, a 3-0 record and allowed a merger .515 OPS. He had two pitches and won just 4 games for the remainder of the season while posting 10 losses over that time. This spring, Germano has further developed his change up and has been inserted in the 5-hole of the rotation as a result. The development of this third pitch should go a long way towards keeping hitters honest - particularly given that it is a change up, thereby enhancing his fastball's effectiveness. Genmano's success may play a critical role in the 2008 campaign as the Friars boast a solid, but potentially fragile rotation, given the number of recovering and aging pitchers on the staff. With Randy Wolf and Mark Prior coming back from injuries and Greg Maddux not getting any younger, Germano may find himself bouncing throughout the rotation over the coarse of the year.

Predicted Padres Pitching Prowess

The Friars are keeping the faith that their vaunted pitching staff can carry the team. That said, we thought it would be interesting to check out how the Bill James Handbook 2008 projects the staff to perform. For the club's presumed optimal starting rotation, the Handbook breaks it down as follows (Pitcher - W/L/ERA/IP/WHIP/K):

• Jake Peavy - 15 8 3.23 212 1.17 217


• Chris Young - 13 8 3.34 186 1.18 166


• Greg Maddux - 13 9 3.60 200 1.20 121


• Randy Wolf - 5 6 4.32 100 1.37 81


• Mark Prior - 5 4 3.60 75 1.23 85

Immediately striking is the similarity that the projections have in rotation spots one through three. Nobody appreciates Maddux's low walk rate more than FF, and we don't want to take anything away from him, but he hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 2003 season. Peavy's numbers seem overly skewed by his injury-marred 2006 campaign while the projection ignores Chris Young's iterative, season-by-season improvement trend (see graph below). Friar fans will have to hope for better returns than those suggested by the Handbook if they are to remain competitive in the NL West.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

A big part of the team's success will likely depend on the performance of the bullpen. Nobody puts together a better 'pen than Kevin Towers (if only he could do the same for right-handed power hitters, but I digress). Once again the projections seem a little high, this time looking at player - ERA/S/IP/WHIP/K per 9:

• Trevor Hoffman - 2.80 39 61 1.07 8.26


• Heath Bell - 3.10 1 83 1.16 9.70


• Cla Meredith - 3.51 0 82 1.22 6.91


• Kevin Cameron - 3.90 0 60 1.47 7.65


• Joe Thatcher - No Handbook project listed

Estes Shelled In Catcus Debut

Shawn Estes toed the rubber in Fridays Cactus League opener and was able to record just 2 outs in the 8 Royals he faced. Estes is attempting to keep the 5th spot in the rotation warm for Mark Prior and while there are many more innings to toss this spring to make an impact, FF is sure that the southpaw hurler is not happy with his outing that included two free passes and four hits.

NOTES FROM PEORIA:

Callix Crabbe was slotted as San Diego's leadoff hitter Friday and responded with a double to officially kick start the Friars offense. Crabbe is a rule V draftee who can play an assortment of positions and brings speed to an otherwise station to station club.

Friars spring loaded sticks come alive late, but not enough to propel Pads to first win...

Friar Offseason a B?

Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman has graded the Padres' offseason maneuvering at a B level (above average!). Really? Of Kevin Tower's moves, Heyman says,

11. Padres. No one makes more worthwhile low-budget pickups than San Diego(Mark Prior, Randy Wolf, Tony Clark this winter). Maybe it's the lure of San Diego, I'm not sure. Jim Edmonds may have a resurgence back home in Southern California, too. But I still can't help but feel Barry Bonds could turn it into a dynamo. B

IF KT's low monetary bets on Prior and Wolf pay off, then this offseason will be at best above average. While FF likes these moves, the reality is that the bar has been raised by the competition the already hyper-competitive National League West. These moves may not expose the Padres to much payroll risk, but they certainly expose them to a tremendous amount of performance risk. Should either pitcher falter, KT will have to start from scratch.

Tony Clark is a good pickup for the clubhouse and to spell Adrian Gonzalez, but this a bit of reach in the above average classification. AJ Smith could argue that keeping a backup in Michael Turner was a major offseason move, but he didn't have have to plug six spots in the starting lineup (LF, CF, 2B, C, SP4, SP5). Speaking of these positions, LF remains wide open. FF likes Scott Hairston and would love to see Chase Headley emerge, but when the team can't anoint a green player as the presumptive starter, it's hard to argue the void is filled. Mike Cameron for Jim Edmonds is a wash in center at best. Tadahito Iguchi is clearly an upgrade over the 2007 2B platoon. FF continues to be be disturbed by apparently satisfaction with the unchanged backstops.

A quick sidebar for the national media: Get off the Padres-Barry Bonds obsession. You think that people freaked when Burger King stopped selling the Whopper? San Diego would embrace Al Davis before Barry Bonds.

Some positive things did happen over the offseason: Jake Peavy was signed to a contract extension, Greg Maddux was brought back, the Terrmel Sledge experiment ended, not to mention some potential pitching and bench depth was added. Guess FF must have forgotten when treading water became an above average effort. Either Milton Bradley or Kosuke Fukudome could have made the grade a B+ or better; a pre- or in-season move could still push the Friars to the next level, but FF thinks KT will stay the course until he has a better feel for Hairston and Headley.

Prior A Friar

Mark Prior has officially joined the San Diego Padres Baseball Club. It is a bit unclear when he will be healthy enough to join the rotation, but the Padres could have a lights-out staff of starters once he does. The current rotation figures to be:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Greg Maddux
4. Randy Wolf
5. Mark Prior/??? (until Prior is ready to pitch)

While the offensive side of the offseason has been a drag, Kevin Towers has done an excellent job of targeting rebounding pitchers with Petco Park's pitching allure. The exact terms of Priors deal are not yet know, but are likely to include a heavy dose of incentives.

UPDATE:
The AP is reporting that Prior signed a 1 year deal for $1M, with another $4.5M that could be tacked on based on performance milestones.

Prior Wants to Come Home?

ESPN is reporting that the Padres are the front runners in the Mark Prior race, mostly due to his desire to pitch in the town where he was raised and currently lives. Like many rumored Padres signings this off season, FF will believe when we see it.