Peavy Nixed Deal To ChiSox

Jake Peavy will remain in San Diego, for now. The reason that the former Cy Young winner is not packing his bags for a foursome of prospects is that Kevin Towers and the Padres continue to give up their leverage in order to sign players to a more discounted deal by giving players the power of a full no trade clause. Jake Peavy has stated time and again that he has a strong preference to stay in the National League. He, as FF would have, used his power to dictate his destination. FF urges fans not to be upset with Peavy; when he signed a discounted deal to stay in San Diego he gave up the right of free agency thus his right to decide where to sign. This clause was earned by Peavy, just should not be given away by the Padres front office.

All Padres fans remember the multiple deals that Phil Nevin turned down to stay in SD (one to the Reds that would have brought Ken Griffey, Jr, and another to Baltimore) as well as Brian Giles last season to Boston. This continuously come back to bite the Padres and is frustrating for the organization and the fans.


Foxsports Ken Rosenthal agrees with FF.

Pads Continue To Tinker

The first place San Diego Padres (how many time will we be able to report that) have signed Chicago Cubs castoff Chad Gaudin to a minor league deal. The Cubs released the 26 year old righty after a tough spring in the hot, thin Cactus League air. The Padres will only be on the hook for $400K of his $2 million contract (the Cubs will eat the remaining $1.6M). This is a classic Kevin Towers deal where he is buying low; however Guadin seems to have more upside than Friday's waiver wire acquisition of Luis Perdomo, a rule five draftee from the San Francisco Giants. The Padres seem to provide Gaudin with the best opportunity to pitch at the major league level quickly. FF is cautiously optimistic regarding one of the two recent signings...we'll let you, our loyal readers, read between the lines!

GM = General Misconception?

Jeff Moorad has reportedly moved to demystify any general misconceptions surrounding the reporting and decision making structure within the front office. As we noted in December, the Friar front office was rumored to have a bizarre reporting structure where GM Kevin Towers had to get his baseball operation moves cleared by former CEO Sandy Alderson's deputy, Paul DePodesta. This rumor had a number of variations, making it difficult to know the real story. Regardless, it remains clear that front office gossip is a negative development, possibly impacting the perception of the club as a destination for players in the process. New CEO and partial owner Jeff Moorad has clarified the situation, according to the U-T, altering the front office organizational structure to have DePodesta report to Towers. While the article contains a number of interesting quotes, all seemingly aimed at portraying the story as a non-issue, we can't help but read into the following statements by Towers:

“If anything, it'll be good for all of us... I doubt there was really any truth to Paul nixing deals. Sandy always gave me full autonomy. Did Paul have the authority to maybe squash a deal or maybe talk Sandy out of it? I doubt that ever happened. I think from a perception standpoint, it put all of us in an uncomfortable situation.

and

“If anything... it should help Paul in the way of fitting in with everybody else. Even if there was zero truth, maybe what people speculated (about who was making decisions), I don't think there will be that now.

Hmmm... this doesn't exactly leave the impression that Towers felt like he was fully in charge of baseball operations. Kudos to DePodesta for being classy about the whole thing, saying:

“Really, for all practical purposes, nothing really changes for me. I've always deferred to Kevin on baseball issues and always felt I reported to Kevin on baseball issues. I did some non-baseball work for Sandy, which is the primary reason I reported to him.”

FF thinks Moorad made the right decision here. One less thing to focus on off the field makes the club stronger.

Pads Add Arm On Sandy's Final Day

The San Diego Padres continued their quest for effective pitchers Wednesday when acquiring Eulogio De La Cruz (who goes by "Frankie") from the Marlins for cash. The 25 year old Dominican born starter routinely touched the high 90's while posting a 13-8 record in Triple A last season. De La Cruz has worked out of the bullpen as well as starting which fits the needs of the Padres who have holes to fill in both possible roles. The right hander is likely to break camp with the Padres who will keep him on the roster due to his lack of minor league options just as much as his power arm and and potential upside. The Friars scooped up Shawn Hill after the right handed started was released by the Washington Nationals. The Padres seem to have at least 2 rotations spots still up for grabs, and the bullpen remains a wide open competition. FF does not beleive KT is done adding pitchers prior to opening day. FF also predicts that freshly released lefty Royce Ring will be back in San Diego within a week.

Another step towards new ownership will take place on Thursday as owner John Moores will bring Jeff Morrad, the owner-in-waiting, in as the CEO while Sandy Alderson will step down from that same position. FF will recap the Alderson Years in a fuure post.

Towers Snags Sanchez

Much of the Padres' potential for success in 2009 relies not only relies on club veterans improving on their 2008 performance, but also on their General Manager doing the same. Kevin Towers has his moments. Many folks think of him fleecing other teams in horribly lopsided deals (most recently, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young in exchange for Akinori Otsuka). We at FF think that Towers' prime skill has been building stellar bullpens out of thin air (2008 was a notable exception). To that end, the whole of Friar nation hopes that KT has his mojo back, particularly in light of his most recent acquisition, Duaner Sanchez. Many Padre fans are familiar with Sanchez, who spent the 2004 and 2005 seasons with the hated Los Angeles Dodgers. Padres.com reports that his most recent past-employer, the New York Mets, apparently had concerns over his declining velocity, leading to his release and the Padres acquisition. Sanchez had his best season in 2007, when he posted a 2.60 ERA in 49 contests. Of special note to Padreball watchers, Sanchez has maintained a near-constant K/BB ratio of a little under 2-1 (not exactly the type of high ratio Towers typically covets in his pen).

Maybe Moores Should Move On

Here's a minor break in FF's offseason silence: maybe John Moores should move on from the Padres. We wouldn't be the first to note that Moores has been very generous to the San Diego community. For this, he should be commended. We've even heard that he's a generally nice, well meaning guy that genuinely cares about those with which he works. While this and additional accolades may be true, maybe it would be best for him and his wife to put the club behind them. Simply put, many people and caught up in this alleged divorce fight over the club. Friar fans - check. Trevor Hoffman - check. Jake Peavy - check. The 2009 club - check. If this isn't enough, hearing that Kevin Towers must have all player moves approved by Sandy Alderson assistant Paul DePodesta surely adds to insanity (maybe this is old news, but it is the first we've heard of it... we are so disgruntled with the team at the moment, that we aren't keeping close tabs). We'd like to see one of two actions:

• Have each half of the divorcing couple fund half of the team at last year's level (no salary inflation) and put "ownership" in the hands of their daughter. This has long been rumored as eventual direction for the team - make it happen now.


• Put the team on the block.

Both seem more reasonable then holding the franchise hostage.

Managerial Mayham

With sharks circling Bud Black's locker with ever-increasing anticipation that they may get a meal, FF continues to feel the burden of this unacceptable season lift. We think Black should go. After being reasonably happy with him as Bruce Bochy's successor in 2007, we lost patience very early this season. Let's be clear - Bud Black was just a rebound relationship for Friar fans. After common law marriage with Bochy, we were all happy to embrace a new model that wears a normal hat size. Now that we've had our post-Boch fling, it's time to find a managerial relationship we can stand by. Below is FF's suggested list of items for the front office's personal ad, hopefully it will help lead this next foray to the alter:

• Black has recently lamented not having his starting catcher this season. He has nobody to blame but himself for that one. He rides catchers into ground. The next Friar manager has to recognize the demands of baseball's toughest position and give these guys the rest they need to span the season. Bochy was better.


• Black, in the previsouly linked U-T article, isn't happy with pitching, in general nor the bullpen:

  “We kept trying to find the right guys in the bullpen and we never got the right combination from the start of the season. That is something we need to address.”

  Were there more than two or three relievers in the bullpen? I guess FF was confused, because it seemed like Black just trots the same guys out over and over until he's worn them down as well. Bochy was better.


• Black's team never stole bases. In fairness, they played American League style ball - station-to-station, waiting for the "big hit". Great strategy on these teams. In fact, there seems to be a pattern forming here - AL ball doesn't work in the NL West. Bochy over-managed, Black has under-managed. Let's avoid the characteristics of managerial predecessors on this one.


• Three hitting coaches in two years isn't Black's fault. This is actually the primary problem in Padre-ville. The front office has created defacto dysfunction with whomever it cozies up to in the form of an outlandish home. It's time to fix Petco. Good pitching is good pitching - we don't need a brutally unfair park to "make" pitchers good. It should neither play like Death Valley nor a bandbox. A balanced park will give the team a chance when pitching and defense isn't perfect.

FF hopes the front office catches us a hottie.

Where There's Black Smoke...

After Padres hitting coach, Wally Joyner, resigned prior to his likely dismissal at seasons end, the stability of the entire coaching staff is in question. The Padres extended manager Bud Black's contract through the 2009 season this spring, however the Sandy Alderson's and Kevin Tower's in the organization are refusing comment and not publicly supporting their skipper.

FF has regretfully slowed the frequency of posts due to the most disappointing season in recent memory. It takes a lot of poor play and lack of franchise direction to turn two lifelong Friar fanatics into those who can't stand to watch the on field product.

Whether it is right or wrong there are scapegoats when a season falls this shy of expectations. The head that usually rolls is that of the manager, and in this case FF completely supports the idea of going a different direction. Let the domino's start to fall, rip this thing apart and rebuild quickly (possibly starting with the 1st pick in the draft).

Padres Adding By Subtracting

The San Diego Padres will announce on Monday that the have released veterans Tadihito Iguchi, and Brett Tomko. Iguchi signed a one year deal with the Padres and had an extremely disappointing season. Tomko was with the Friars for the 20th time, and FF expects KT to sign him yet again next season after being released. The Friars are set to expand their 25 man roster to at least 30 on Monday, including touted prospects Matt Antonelli and Wade LeBlanc. The Padres will continue to use the remaining games to gage their young talent, seeing the young players, such as Will Venable over the Padres 5-1 homestand gives FF a glimmer of hope that the Padres struggles will be short lived...a small glimmer.

Pads Points:

Lefty Wil Ledezma was claimed off waivers earlier this week by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Padres great, Trevor Hoffman, blew a save Sunday that would have given Jake Peavy his 10th victory of the season. Peavy hasn't been as dominant as he was last year (tough to repeat as the triple crown, and Cy Young winner), but has deserved far better than the 9-9 record.

The San Diego Discount Paradox

The Padres have become (in)famous for their "San Diego Discount". The basic idea is that San Diego is America's self-proclaimed "Finest City". The fantastic weather, almost brand new ballpark and it's excellent playing surface, as well as the highly regarded training staff do come at a price. The San Diego Discount.

Folks like Jake Peavy, Brian Giles, and Phil Nevin have all taken less money to play in the bastion that is San Diego. Kevin Towers seems to seek out Southern California natives that may be even more likely to come back to the future. The trick here is that any player that really can get big money elsewhere rightfully demands some level of no trade powers to take less money. These (relatively) long terms deals seem to frequently lead to players that cannot be moved (despite the front office's best efforts). At some point, the front office has to ask itself what the opportunity cost of the San Diego Discount really is. Otherwise said, how does the San Diego Discount affect the next best opportunity that Padres could pursue.

Often, the San Diego Discount translates to a few million dollars saved on a yearly basis for a declining, unmovable player. See Nevin and Ryan Klesko. Padre fans should consider that the only true offensive threat in the lineup may never have become a force for the Friars if Klesko hadn't injured himself, opening a position for Adrian Gonzalez. Otherwise put, Klesko's San Diego Discount almost cost the Padre's Gonzalez's bat. The front office may argue that this would have only been for one year, while Klesko's contract expired, but that still means that they would have been fielding Klesko solely to justify his unmovable contract.

In the case of Nevin, the opportunity cost of his no-trade powers ended up being Chan Ho Park. For a mid- to small-revenue club, Chan Ho Park at $14M per season seems a little extravagant. Then again, it really wasn't Chan Ho Park's fault - FF would place the causality on the San Diego Discount. (We would be remiss not to note that Nevin did do the Padres a favor by vetoing a trade that would have brought Sidney Ponson to the Friars, but that doesn't justify the San Diego Discount) Nevin also vetoed a trade that would have brought Ken Griffy, Jr. to San Diego, but we digress. The main point here is that Phil Nevin's San Diego discount ended up being more than $15M spent for a marginal pitcher. That money could have definitely been put to better use, but for the San Diego Discount.

This week we saw another execution of the San Diego Discount with Brian Giles killing a deal to Boston, apparently creating something of an uproar in the clubhouse. Giles plays hard, is having a decent season, and is a good clubhouse guy. That said, he's a big investment for a small budget club. FF doesn't fault Giles for vetoing the trade. Here's a shocker - we fault the San Diego Discount. We'd like to see those statisticians and economists that Padres employ take a good look at the San Diego Discount. Given Sandy Alderson's stated distaste for long term contracts, we suspect that no trade powers attached to those contracts only leaves a more bitter taste in his mouth. It certainly does for us.

The San Diego Discount should be abolished. We suspect that paying the market rate where reasonable is likely worth keeping all options open. Players with five years on the same team and ten years of MLB service get the no trade powers they deserve. Let's just leave it at that.

Maddux Remains In San Diego

Thursday's non waiver trade deadline has come and gone with the Padres holding onto players like Greg Maddux, Brian Giles, and Josh Bard. Other Padres players who had their names in a few trade rumors included bullpen arms Cla Meredith and Heath Bell. FF was hoping to see the Pads unload Maddux and maybe Bard, as the catching duties for the rest of this year should go to Nick Hundley to allow the Pads to evaluate where he stands in their fuure plans. Towers has never been shy with the waiver wire deals; he made plenty of deals in August last year and FF would be surprised if there aren't a few coming this season.

Hoffman Boos Really About Franchise

The recent advent of boos directed at future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman are disheartening. FF does not support this behavior - not one bit. With that out of the way - we suggest that Hoffy was not the target of the boo birds. It was the organization. Michael Barrett figured it out in the previously linked Union-Tribute article:

I thought they were booing all of us.

Mr. Barrett - go to the head of the class. There is something deeply wrong with the 2008 ball club. There is plenty of blame to go around. The bullpen has been awful. Hitting has been atrocious - at times it seems like hitters actually think that goal of the game is to strikeout more than the other team. Managerial decisions have been all over the place. Remember when Josh Bard could hit? We do, and we don't think it is a coincidence that the catchers and bullpen have suffered from an American League-style of managing where certain players are called upon far too often. The front office also plays a prominent role. But none of these gripes is the real problem with the team.

There isn't enough anger from players, coaches, or the front office over the team's lackluster play. It's true that Kevin Towers got angry a while back (and the team actually seemed to respond). But the reaction to boo birds seems to cut to the heart of the matter. To his credit, Hoffman said the right thing:

"I've got to make a better pitch"

Meanwhile, a number of other team members commented that the boo-ers basically lacked class. This is true. But those folks all need to take a page from Hoffman's book and focus on improving. FF believes that team doesn't have a fire lit under their collective butts. If they do, maybe that should express it more. Fans may still boo, but at least we'd all know that the players are more frustrated than the fans. About their, play, not manners.

Atrocious; What's Next?

Even Jake Peavy can't cure the Padres' current ills. The staff ace allowed three runs over six innings with six punch outs to take a 9-2 loss against the Mariners. The club has not won a game in over a week (6/20) and one has to go back more than two weeks to find a second win (6/14). If everyone is being honest with themselves, there is no reason to continue on in their current incarnation. Even if they hit a major hot streak and win the horrid NL West, they would be trounced in the playoffs. After reportedly still standing on the fence 10 days ago, the likelihood of front office mailing in a veteran-lead comeback is increasing. For instance, the Union-Tribune yesterday suggested that there is too much financial benefit to dump contracts, such as Randy Wolf's:

The Padres stand to save $1.6 million in salary, plus an additional $175,000 per start if they deal Wolf in late July. With the club preparing to spend several million dollars on foreign amateurs by Wednesday, future savings might be welcomed.

FF would welcome this change of pace. In fact, we see as much or more upside to the strategy - both in terms of current and future success. Outside of one or two guys, it's quite possible that lessor known players will provide as much or more upside compared to current Padre regulars. For instance, we don't see Tad Iguchi unseating Edgar Gonzalez anytime soon. Little-big brother Gonzalez is providing better returns than Iguchi this season, and would seem to be a cheap, effective alternative to pushing Matt Antonelli for 2009. Expect Kevin Towers to to wait until the trading deadline draws near to maximize his leverage. In the meantime, any chance we can find more Gonzalez brothers?

Kouz on the Block?

CBS Sports is reporting both of the following rumors:

• Rumor: Kevin Towers may be a fit for the recently vacated Seattle Mariners GM spot, given his ties to the region and misalignment with Sandy Alderson.
  
• Rumor: Kevin Kouzmanoff will be unloaded to open up the hot corner for Chase Headley due to concerns that Headley can't cover enough ground in left field.

FF isn't really concerned with the first rumor. The Padres organization seems to be run by committee a this point. The Padre's front office seems to be the First Wives Club of former General Managers. Employed in front office's army are Sandy Alderson (A's and current Padres CEO), Randy Smith (Padres, Tigers) and Paul DePodesta (Dodgers) and Grady Fuson (Assistant GM for the Rangers). We doubt any change in GM would impact the organization too much.

In terms of Kouz, addition by subtraction doesn't seem like a great strategy at this point. Given the Padres' desire for cheap players, a trade would have to be for someone less than or equal to Kouz. This scenario will seem much more plausible if Kouz heats up, the Padres wind down, and a playoff team with a deep farm system finds themselves in desperate need of a third baseman.

KT Staying In San Diego

The Padres Sandy Alderson put a quick stop to the notions that Kevin Towers was on the Seattle Mariners short list to fill their newly vacant General Manager position. Alderson said that the Mariners have not called, and if a call from the northwest was placed KT would not be granted permission to speak to them regarding the job. Rumors where spinning as the there is a popular sentiment that Towers has lost some power in the Alderson regime. It most likely did not help that the Padres gave Towers the green light a few years back to interview with division rival Arizona. KT did throw his name in the hat, but the Diamondbacks decided to go a different direction.

Headley Finally Arrives

The Padres front office has finally pulled the trigger on Chase Headley's promotion. He will presumably take over left field from a revolving case of the following characters: Scotty Hairston, Paul McAnulty, and Justin Huber. Kevin Towers has also indicated the Headley may be used to spell Kevin Kouzmanoff at third. He was quoted as saying,

I think the environment is much better than it was three weeks ago. We have got a lot of guys contributing offensively. When he gets here, he shouldn't have to feel like he's got to carry this ballclub. We're playing good baseball now... To me, now is kind of the right time to have him here, when things are going well.

This move has been alluded to for some time, though it appears that Headley may not see action until the Yankees series starts. A corresponding roster move has yet to have been made, but Scott Hairston's hyperextended elbow could move him to the DL, providing extra time for the front office to make a move.

FF is relieved to finally see the club's top prospect leveraged. We firmly disagree with the mantra of the "bad environment" that Towers has been spouting recently. The bottom line is that struggling club is great way to offer some low-pressure playing time for a prospect to get comfortable. Given the club's general lack of success in bringing prospects on board, we recommend the Friars completely retool this process. Everyone in baseball - and sports in general - knows the story: play well or someone else will get your opportunity. This is another opportunity for KT to learn from AJ.

KT To Harvest Farm System?

A frustrated Kevin Towers lets his players know that he is sick of watching this ballclub accept defeat after mind numbing defeat. Towers' club is on pace to be the second worst team in franchise history, and this organization has had its fair share of poor teams! What makes this season's debacle exceptionally painful is the '08 team was pegged for 90 wins and a divisional banner by the front office. The solution may be in a farm system that KT has seemed hesitant to harvest.

"We've got some hungry players down below looking for an opportunity. There's not one player in the system who is going to turn it around. If we make changes, it will be wholesale."

These words from the GM make it clear that they are not happy with the teams performance and that multiple moves are on the horizon, as well they should be.

Help Wanted

FF is officially disgusted by the way that the Padres are swinging the bat. It has been over 90 innings and more than a week since the Friars have hit a homer, and extra base hits are so rare that when they do occur the base runner gets confused and keeps running (sorry, PMac). The fact is that when this team hits, they are moving 90 feet at a time. If you are going to play small ball, please acquire some speed to go first to third on the back end of two singles.

Something needs to happen with this team, and fast. Rumor has it that the Padres have some sort of offensive stud playing in Portland. The time has come for Chase Headley to be up with the big boys. Though Scott Hairston maybe more comfortable in left field, his one handed haymaker swings seem to be the reason that he has never been an everyday player in this league.

Kevin Towers should have a ridiculously high phone bill right now, and a move for the Matt Murton's of the world is not going to cut it. I know the franchise philosophy is to build around young players and fill the gaps with average and declining veterans, but something has to be done to reduce this drowning offense. With the outstanding pitching the Padres possess, it would be a shame not to field a quality lineup behind them to make a mark this season. The farm system is built up a bit ~ put some chips in play in hopes to push some runs across the plate.

Cameron Bolsters Bullpen

Kevin Tower's most successful Rule 5 pick since Will Cunnane has returned to the big club. Last year, Bud Black treated Kevin Cameron with kid gloves for the first half of the season. While Cameron seemed to excel before the break, a quick glance at his statistical line revealed a dangerous number of walks allowed (18 in a hair under 30 innings pitched with a 0.31 ERA). Before imploding in September, Cameron found his control and was rewarded with more high profile duty out of the pen. Down with flu during Spring Training, Cameron has been brought up from Portland with Enrique Gonzalez being outrighted to the Beavers to create roster space. The move will shore up a traditionally sturdy pen that has struggled thus far in 2008, a welcomed positive story for Frair fans everywhere.

Backstop Backup Brainstorm

The U-T's Tom Krasovic reports that Padres General Manager Kevin Towers may be looking at veteran receiver Damien Miller should Michael Barrett be sidelined for an extended period of time. Also discussed is the extent of Barrett's injury, which is thankfully less severe than originally anticipated. We've discussed ulnar collateral ligament injuries in regard to former first round picks Ceasar Carillo and Nick Schmidt, who both required Tommy John surgery. This invasive procedure doesn't appear to be in the cards for Barrett, but the timetable for his return is likely around 2 months.

Miller has spent the bulk of his 11 season career in the National League with Arizona, Chicago and Milwaukee. A career .262 hitter, Miller is solid backstop that has tossed an impressive 37% of would-be base theifs in his career. This plainly addresses a need on the club, which has been victimized by opposing teams on the basepaths an epic manner of the last two seasons (setting and then breaking a Major League record for stolen bases allowed).

Forbes Ranks Friars 19th In '08 Value

Forbes Magazine's 2008 edition of SportsMoney Baseball has ranked John Moores' Padres as the 19th most valuable club in Major League Baseball at $385M (out of 30). This represents an 11% increase over last year's valuation and has the Friars increasing in value 22% more than average club during that period. That puts Moores ahead nearly threefold on paper in real dollars, as he paid $94M for the club in 1994 ($131.5M in 2008 dollars). The magazine supports the frequent Friar explanation that stadium debt service is handcuffing the team while also noting an increase in money for signing draftees and building the new complex in the Dominican Republic. The Padres reportedly posted $23.6M in operating profit (before taxes, interest, depreciation, and amortization) against $167M in revenue. Positively, Forbes has slotted the Padres in a respectable 7th place in their "Payroll vs. Performance" ranking. Other NL West teams scored as follows (team: value, payroll v. performance):

• Arizona: 20th, 9th


• Colorado: 21st, 2nd


• Los Angeles: 4th, 28th


• San Fransisco: 8th, 27th

We'll likely hear this debt service argument come up again this season as the trade deadline approaches (or if one of the club's aging outfielders goes down). In an interesting note, Forbes didn't mention the club's TV revenues as a problem, though this has been sited in the past by the front office. It's a good thing that Kevin Tower's status as a "sludge merchant" has been upheld by the magazine's ranking of the Padres as the 7th best at payroll vs. performance.

Trade Front And Center For Padres

The Padres couldn't or wouldn't come to an agreement to retain their free agent center fielder Mike Cameron this offseason and instead turned the position over to former All Star and Gold Glove winner Jim Edmonds, who was acquired in a trade with the Cards. Immediately following this trade, questions regarding the age and health of the Friars CF (Edmonds) and RF(Brian Giles) accompanied the questions about the lack of a starting left fielder. Through the first week of Cactus League play the Padres Edmonds and Giles have combined for 1 base hit, granted Brian Giles has yet to lace up his spikes due to his recovery from offseason knee surgery ~ but then again, that in itself is a problem. Edmonds is now on the shelf for 2-3 weeks due to a calf strain he suffered while in the batters box in a game this week.

The only left field clarification to date is that Jody Gerut , Chase Headley, and even Paul McAnulty have all proved that they can hit enough to compete for playing time with incumbent Scott Hairston, who himself has never been an everyday major league starter. So, lets toss in the huge hole in center created by Edmonds' calf muscle and the Padres have a tough situation with few in house fixes.

On Friday Kevin Towers reported that he had talked with the Boston Red Sox regarding Coco Crisp, it is suspected that the Sox would want top prospects Chase Headley or Matt Antonelli ~ and the Pads are not giving those 2 away for almost anyone at this point. So, may the Friars see yet another aging player passed their prime sporting the sand and navy in FA Kenny Lofton? Or would the Pads give up top talent to bring Tony Gywnn, Jr. back home from the Brewers? Something will have to happen, because the season is drawing ever closer and the Pads outfield is getting older each inning that passes.

Look for the Pads to also speak to the Angels, who have too many bodies in their outfield - some who are out of minor league options. FF believes (or wants to believe) that the Friars will find a way to get younger, healthier, and faster in the outfield prior to the March 31st opener.

Aged Outfield Doubts Spring Forward

Frair fans have feared that 2008 would require the bulk of the outfield to maintain a RICE diet. While news that CF Jim Edmonds has only suffered a calf strain (likely to sideline him for 2-3 weeks), an injury at this early date of season is a harbinger of things to come. The other senior member of the outfield, right fielder Brian Giles, has yet to participate in a game and is now slotted to get his first action as a designated hitter in March 15. The additive nature of these reports doesn't bode well for the opening day lineup. On the plus side, these injuries should provide an extra-long look at Chase Headley and Jody Gerut, among others. General Manager Kevin Towers will have plenty of information upon which to act or hold tight within a couple of weeks...

A calf strain is defined by Wikipedia as:

A torn calf muscle happens when the calf muscle is pulled apart from the Achilles tendon. Severe pain is felt by the victim – you may think you've just been hit in the leg and hear a "pop." Sudden pain is felt around the leg.

This injury happens during acceleration or changes in direction. The torn calf muscle may spasm, and contract forcefully. The toes will point down. Bruises can show up in the leg, foot and ankle due to pooling of blood from internal bleeding. It may take some time for the bruises to occur, from hours to days depending upon where the tear occurred. The circumference of the leg will most certainly increase.

This injury may take several months to heal. Its important not to continue the exercise if muscle is torn as internal bleeding is taking place. See a doctor immediately after muscle is torn to get you on a rehabilitation routine.

Predicted Padres Pitching Prowess

The Friars are keeping the faith that their vaunted pitching staff can carry the team. That said, we thought it would be interesting to check out how the Bill James Handbook 2008 projects the staff to perform. For the club's presumed optimal starting rotation, the Handbook breaks it down as follows (Pitcher - W/L/ERA/IP/WHIP/K):

• Jake Peavy - 15 8 3.23 212 1.17 217


• Chris Young - 13 8 3.34 186 1.18 166


• Greg Maddux - 13 9 3.60 200 1.20 121


• Randy Wolf - 5 6 4.32 100 1.37 81


• Mark Prior - 5 4 3.60 75 1.23 85

Immediately striking is the similarity that the projections have in rotation spots one through three. Nobody appreciates Maddux's low walk rate more than FF, and we don't want to take anything away from him, but he hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 2003 season. Peavy's numbers seem overly skewed by his injury-marred 2006 campaign while the projection ignores Chris Young's iterative, season-by-season improvement trend (see graph below). Friar fans will have to hope for better returns than those suggested by the Handbook if they are to remain competitive in the NL West.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

A big part of the team's success will likely depend on the performance of the bullpen. Nobody puts together a better 'pen than Kevin Towers (if only he could do the same for right-handed power hitters, but I digress). Once again the projections seem a little high, this time looking at player - ERA/S/IP/WHIP/K per 9:

• Trevor Hoffman - 2.80 39 61 1.07 8.26


• Heath Bell - 3.10 1 83 1.16 9.70


• Cla Meredith - 3.51 0 82 1.22 6.91


• Kevin Cameron - 3.90 0 60 1.47 7.65


• Joe Thatcher - No Handbook project listed

Gross Rumor Idle Speculation

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Brewers Blog reports that Kevin Towers has not discussed Gabe Gross with Brew Crew GM Doug Melvin. As our prior discussion on the topic had alluded, FF is pleased with this news as adding another lefty into the outfield mix seems to ignore the realities of Petco Park.

Murton Rumors Still Alive

Matt Murton to the Padres rumors remain persistent, as reported by mlbtraderumors.com. FF doesn't expect any trades to go down soon, as Kevin Towers will likely see how Scott Hairston and Chase Headley look in Peoria. Even so, Murton isn't exactly the right handed power hitter the Padres covet. Nonetheless, The Bill James Handbook 2008 projects Murton to post a respectable .841 OPS in 2008. In comparison, James predicts a .932 clip from Headley with a .839 showing from Hairston (see OBP graph below). With these numbers, its hard to see a ton of upside in executing this trade, outside of a bench depth to offset an aging outfield.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

Friar Offseason a B?

Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman has graded the Padres' offseason maneuvering at a B level (above average!). Really? Of Kevin Tower's moves, Heyman says,

11. Padres. No one makes more worthwhile low-budget pickups than San Diego(Mark Prior, Randy Wolf, Tony Clark this winter). Maybe it's the lure of San Diego, I'm not sure. Jim Edmonds may have a resurgence back home in Southern California, too. But I still can't help but feel Barry Bonds could turn it into a dynamo. B

IF KT's low monetary bets on Prior and Wolf pay off, then this offseason will be at best above average. While FF likes these moves, the reality is that the bar has been raised by the competition the already hyper-competitive National League West. These moves may not expose the Padres to much payroll risk, but they certainly expose them to a tremendous amount of performance risk. Should either pitcher falter, KT will have to start from scratch.

Tony Clark is a good pickup for the clubhouse and to spell Adrian Gonzalez, but this a bit of reach in the above average classification. AJ Smith could argue that keeping a backup in Michael Turner was a major offseason move, but he didn't have have to plug six spots in the starting lineup (LF, CF, 2B, C, SP4, SP5). Speaking of these positions, LF remains wide open. FF likes Scott Hairston and would love to see Chase Headley emerge, but when the team can't anoint a green player as the presumptive starter, it's hard to argue the void is filled. Mike Cameron for Jim Edmonds is a wash in center at best. Tadahito Iguchi is clearly an upgrade over the 2007 2B platoon. FF continues to be be disturbed by apparently satisfaction with the unchanged backstops.

A quick sidebar for the national media: Get off the Padres-Barry Bonds obsession. You think that people freaked when Burger King stopped selling the Whopper? San Diego would embrace Al Davis before Barry Bonds.

Some positive things did happen over the offseason: Jake Peavy was signed to a contract extension, Greg Maddux was brought back, the Terrmel Sledge experiment ended, not to mention some potential pitching and bench depth was added. Guess FF must have forgotten when treading water became an above average effort. Either Milton Bradley or Kosuke Fukudome could have made the grade a B+ or better; a pre- or in-season move could still push the Friars to the next level, but FF thinks KT will stay the course until he has a better feel for Hairston and Headley.

Towers Extended

The longest tenured GM in baseball is staying in San Diego through the 2010 season after getting an extension. Kevin Towers has put together 4 playoff teams, including the National League Champion 1998 installment, with major payroll restrictions. KT is known best for consistently assembling top notch bullpens that have long been a staple in the Padres organization. Towers has locked up young stars Jake Peavy, and Adrian Gonzalez over the last year and is now challenged with the task of signing shortstop Khalil Greene, who, through his spectacular glove work and powerful bat have made him a fan favorite. The official announcement of Towers' extension will come Wednesday.

Khalil's Days as a Friar Numbered?

The Union-Tribune has reported that attempts to reach a long term deal with shortstop Khalil Greene were non-starters. According to the article, Kevin Towers said,

“We approached them, they never approached us. But we heard back that they weren't interested in what we proposed.”

Towers goes on to insinuate that Greene may want to be closer to his family in Key West, FL due to health concerns (see map below). The Frairs have Greene under contract for the next two years. Reading between the lines, this would mean that this year (or part of this year) will almost certainly be Greene's last with the club unless some headway is made towards a long term deal. The Padre Front Office is well known to loath arbitration. The U-T estimates that the Friars have offered just $4M vs. Khalil's request of $5M ($4.9M according to Padres.com) in arbitrating his 2008 salary.

In other news, the Padres are likely headed to arbitration with Josh Bard and have locked up Wil Ledezma without facing arbitration.

The map below highlights the locations that Khalil may be considering after his stint with the Friars. Each location within the blue polygon represents a home field for a team that is geographically closer to Key West (noted with the house icon) than Petco Park. Different colors locations denote the different divisions in MLB. Switch over the satellite view and zoom in to check out each of the fields. Everything on the map is clickable!

View Larger Map

Prior A Friar

Mark Prior has officially joined the San Diego Padres Baseball Club. It is a bit unclear when he will be healthy enough to join the rotation, but the Padres could have a lights-out staff of starters once he does. The current rotation figures to be:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Greg Maddux
4. Randy Wolf
5. Mark Prior/??? (until Prior is ready to pitch)

While the offensive side of the offseason has been a drag, Kevin Towers has done an excellent job of targeting rebounding pitchers with Petco Park's pitching allure. The exact terms of Priors deal are not yet know, but are likely to include a heavy dose of incentives.

UPDATE:
The AP is reporting that Prior signed a 1 year deal for $1M, with another $4.5M that could be tacked on based on performance milestones.

Busy Day For NL West Arms, OF Answers Soon

Friday proved to be a busy day for hurlers coming and going in the NL West, as the Arizona Diamondbacks acquired All Star pitcher Dan Haren from the A's and shipped last 2007 NL saves leader Jose Valverde to the Houston Astros.

While the reigning NL West champions were busy making moves involving big names, the Padres inked 2 veteran LHP, in Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch. These moves solidify depth for the back end of the Friars rotation that (after Peavy, Young, & Maddux) features many seasoned lefties coming off of injury in Randy Wolf, Estes, and Rusch. The 2 signings Friday reduce the probability that San Diego will bring in native Mark Prior, or Josh Towers who was non tendered by Toronto earlier this week.

OF Answers Soon

After missing out on Fukudome, and Bradley the Padres are drawing nearer to hearing back on their final offers to Mike Cameron, and Geoff Jenkins. It seems that the Pads and Cameron's agent have agreed on the length (2 years) of a deal but remain far apart in dollars. The Geoff Jenkins sweepstakes (if you can call it that) has come down to the Padres and the Phillies, in both destinations the left handed slugger would be in a platoon role.

The Padres remain desperate for a CF, and if they bring Cameron back he will miss the first 25 games of the season as a result of testing positive for a banned substance. In that case (as the roster stands right now) Scott Hairston would slip into center with corner outfield possibilities that include: Chase Headley, Brian Giles, Geoff Jenkins,and rumored ex Pad Xavier Nady. The Pads outfield questions remain as vast as the the actual outfield at Petco.

For a little fun lets take a look at a very plausible scenario ~(The Pads sign Cameron and Jenkins, Brian Giles starts the season on the DL after knee surgery)... The Padres would have to trot Scott Hairston out in CF flanked by Geoff Jenkins in RF, and rookie Chase Headley in LF. So, how would that work out for a team built around pitching and defense, not very well! Hairston is not a true CF and with the spacious outfields throughout the division it might just remind Friar fans of the "defense" played by Brady Clark in the 1 game playoff against the Rockies. Jenkins has below average foot speed and is much better suited as a left fielder (especially at Petco), but with Chase Headley having never play outfield Jenkins would be the lesser of the evils.

Who knows how the rest of the offseason will play out, but as it stands now GM Kevin Towers must not be sleeping very well. For a franchise that puts such an emphasis on pitching, it becomes extremely important to catch the ball. We continue to hear that there is a plan and that the Pads will look to bring in young players with speed, great plan! The only problem is the Padres perpetually sign players who are past their prime (if they ever had a prime)...frustrating, scary, and ridiculous all wrapped up into 1. This is a recipe for disaster.


UPDATE

Since the post was written, Mike Cameron has broken off talks with the San Diego Padres. The Friars are, amongst others, discussing the possibility of bringing in two more aging players in St Louis' Jim Edmonds, and Kenny Lofton to fill their huge hole in center.

Tender Cuts

Wednesday night was baseballs deadline for tendering contracts to arbitration eligible players. The Padres have decided to non tender two of their mid season Astros' acquisitions, in 3rd baseman Morgan Ensberg and OF Jason Lane. The Friars also cut ties with pitchers Jack Cassell and Ryan Ketchner, although Cassell and Ketchner are expected to be offered minor league contracts.

Other players that were non tendered across the league of note to the Friars include a group of pitchers that were connected at one point or another this off season to San Diego. Starters Mark Prior and Josh Towers have officially hit the free agent market and a bullpen arm of note that is now available is, former Friar, Aki Otsuka. The other position that might interest the Pads is catcher (especially a defensive minded back-stop). Former Padre Miguel Olivo, and Johnny Estrada have hit the open market; if the Padres end up moving Michael Barrett I would expect to see Olivo get a long look.

I would like to see Kevin Towers bring in either Prior or Towers to round out the rotation and FF would love to see Aki back in the fold as he, Heath Bell, and all time saves leader Hoffman would shorten games to 6 innings in 2008. I have a feeling the price will be right, and we all saw that both mark Prior and Aki Otsuka have expressed their willingness to play for the Padres.

Can KT Learn From AJ?

San Diego sports fans know about the promise of big names and bold moves. We've heard it all many times and have even experienced it a time or two. But watching the Padres operate this offseason has been painful. I can't actually believe I'm saying this - but I am: Why can't KT be more like AJ? KT is, of course, the esteemed General Manager of the San Diego Padres; AJ the corollary with the San Diego Chargers. FF has a great deal of respect for both. KT is much more open about his plans while AJ is as closed as (ironically) a Marty Shottenheimer practice. I can't quite understand why the Friar front office is making such a big, public deal out of everything this offseason. I'm not big into conspiracy theories and this isn't meant to be one itself, but there is so much telegraphing of moves going on that it makes one feel like they want everyone to know they tried, should they eventually fail. We saw the reports that Milton Bradley, Brett Tomko, and even Glendon Rusch were all but done deals; none of these players has signed (and perhaps that's a good thing). Sandy Alderson even got into the act in regard to Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome (audio clip). I think the Friar's front office is fantastic on the whole - but agents and other teams don't need any help. AJ keeps everything close to the vest and nobody really knows what he'll will do at any given time. In the giant game of chicken that is a pro sports personnel management, it makes sense to keep the rest of field wondering.

Bradley Headed to Arlington

FoxSports.com is reporting that Milton Bradley has jilted the Padres' offer and is instead heading for a one year gig with the Rangers. This comes on the same day that the San Diego Union-Tribune's Nick Canepa reports that GM Kevin Towers told him:

Giles talked to Bradley, and he said he doesn't know if he's wanted here,” Towers says. “Now why the hell would we offer him a contract ($4 million for one year) if we didn't want him? This is a very good player.”

Regardless, the deal makes sense for Bradley. He can now slowly build up his knee while "playing" DH. This is certainly a loss for the Friars on paper - Bradley was easily their most impactful hitter in 2007 - when he played. That said, the new round of drama may be something that Friars are lucky to escape.