Peavy Nixed Deal To ChiSox

Jake Peavy will remain in San Diego, for now. The reason that the former Cy Young winner is not packing his bags for a foursome of prospects is that Kevin Towers and the Padres continue to give up their leverage in order to sign players to a more discounted deal by giving players the power of a full no trade clause. Jake Peavy has stated time and again that he has a strong preference to stay in the National League. He, as FF would have, used his power to dictate his destination. FF urges fans not to be upset with Peavy; when he signed a discounted deal to stay in San Diego he gave up the right of free agency thus his right to decide where to sign. This clause was earned by Peavy, just should not be given away by the Padres front office.

All Padres fans remember the multiple deals that Phil Nevin turned down to stay in SD (one to the Reds that would have brought Ken Griffey, Jr, and another to Baltimore) as well as Brian Giles last season to Boston. This continuously come back to bite the Padres and is frustrating for the organization and the fans.


Foxsports Ken Rosenthal agrees with FF.

Tony Gywnn Jr A Padre

Amid all the Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox rumors on Thursday the Friars did pull the trigger to bring Tony Gywnn Jr to San Diego in exchange for Jody Gerut. While FF has enjoyed watching Jody Gerut resurrect his career in a Padres uniform we are excited to have the son of Mr Padre roaming the spacious outfield in Petco Park (19 Tony Gywnn Ave)! FF wrote about the possibility of bringing Gywnn Jr in at the beginning of the season, but we were about 45 days early.

WBC Blues

As if Friar fans didn't have enough on their minds from sitting through Jake Peavy's recent World Baseball Classic outing, now Kevin Youkilis wants Peavy in a BoSox jersey (from CNNSI):

...If we could get him, that would be great. It's not to say we don't have enough pitching as it is, but Jake Peavy is a heck of a pitcher.

Oh, how the other half lives. Why can't Obama just tax the BoSox and the Yankees? Anyway, we digress. Unless Peavy changes his tune, the BoSox are not on the list of teams he is looking to consider. Frankly, we here at FF would rather see any big decision - trading Peavy certainly counts as that - be deferred until the pending sale of the club either goes through or falls through.

Movement Expected As Winter Meetings Come To A Close

The San Diego Padres are expected to make a move Thursday involving a pitcher; however that move will be in the annual rule five draft. In case you haven't heard the Padres are trying to work out a deal with the Chicago Cubs involving Jake Peavy. These talks have gathered steam and been ruled clinically dead multiple times in the last 72 hours, and finally an end may be in sight. The Friars have roped 2 or 3 other (Twins, Phillies) franchises in on the talks and have made Thursday a deadline day. While a deal is not expected to be announced Thursday the Padres have stated that they will need to have the framework of any Peavy deal by the time KT leaves Sin City. FF expects the Peavy exile to happen before the start of Spring Training and until we see the actual return of players we will reserve judgement. FF does expect the Friars to turn around and deal some names involved for more young pitching. No where in the list of players does FF see a replacement for jettisoned SS Khalil Greene. A quick list of players rumored to be San Diego bound include; Jason Marquis, Felix Pie, JoshVitters, JA Happ, Kevin Hart.

Tale of the Tape: A 2.69 ERA with 7 Losses

Nothing highlights the 2008 season nor last night's 2-0 loss to the Giants more than Jake Peavy's season line: a 2.59 ERA, 122 Ks, just 33 BBs, and a 1.12 WHIP - to go along with 7 losses (that ERA now leads the National League). Peavy has often stated that he didn't pitch well enough to win after taking the 'L' this season. True to form, after the latest Padre debacle, Peavy offered this (quoted from the previously linked Yahoo recap):

We just have to play better. Everybody has to play better, myself included.

Guess he was upset for taking the collar himself. Regardless, we're tired of hearing it. Jake has pitched fantastically - on a good team with a full season under his belt, he'd be a Cy Young contender - again. How about one of six position players who took the collar last night stepping up and putting the loss on their shoulders - because that's how things really went down. That's how things have gone down for more than 60% of the season. The bottom line is that Peavy ended the game with a higher batting average (.257) than all but three starters - maybe he should play everyday.

Atrocious; What's Next?

Even Jake Peavy can't cure the Padres' current ills. The staff ace allowed three runs over six innings with six punch outs to take a 9-2 loss against the Mariners. The club has not won a game in over a week (6/20) and one has to go back more than two weeks to find a second win (6/14). If everyone is being honest with themselves, there is no reason to continue on in their current incarnation. Even if they hit a major hot streak and win the horrid NL West, they would be trounced in the playoffs. After reportedly still standing on the fence 10 days ago, the likelihood of front office mailing in a veteran-lead comeback is increasing. For instance, the Union-Tribune yesterday suggested that there is too much financial benefit to dump contracts, such as Randy Wolf's:

The Padres stand to save $1.6 million in salary, plus an additional $175,000 per start if they deal Wolf in late July. With the club preparing to spend several million dollars on foreign amateurs by Wednesday, future savings might be welcomed.

FF would welcome this change of pace. In fact, we see as much or more upside to the strategy - both in terms of current and future success. Outside of one or two guys, it's quite possible that lessor known players will provide as much or more upside compared to current Padre regulars. For instance, we don't see Tad Iguchi unseating Edgar Gonzalez anytime soon. Little-big brother Gonzalez is providing better returns than Iguchi this season, and would seem to be a cheap, effective alternative to pushing Matt Antonelli for 2009. Expect Kevin Towers to to wait until the trading deadline draws near to maximize his leverage. In the meantime, any chance we can find more Gonzalez brothers?

At Least They're Consistant

The San Diego Padres lost yet another chance to pick up a game in the weak NL West to remain 8 games back and drop to 14 games under .500. The Friars 3-1 defeat at the hands of the Twins was not unlike countless other games this season. Tuesday's game marked off all the usual boxes to insure that Frair fans know they are watching the Padres.

The checklist typically includes:

Wasted solid outing by a starter check (Jake Peavy's 6 innings and 1 run earned him a no decision)

Total lack of offense check (1 run on 7 singles and failures in the hit and run and bunting aspects of the sport, not to mention the ridiculously high strikeout rate)

Bullpen collapse check (Trevor Hoffman gave up homers with 2 outs on consecutive pitches in the 9th to take his 5th loss of the season)

Managerial short comings check (Hoffman does not pitch well in non save situations, never has. FF knows this why is Black slow on the uptake?)

Catchers inability to control baserunners wow (Not an issue in Tuesday's game, infact Barrett threw out a runner to end the 8th)

Bombs Not Enough In Bronx

Three late solo homers San Diego's Brian Giles, Adrian Gonzalez, and Chase Headley weren't enough to overcome a short (4 innings) start by Jake Peavy and a bullpen who allowed the Yanks to keep adding on. The Pads drop Wednesday 8-5 in New York. The Friars conclude their 2 city road trip tomorrow morning and hope to pick up a second win prior to returning to Petco. Josh Banks matches up opposite the much hyped Joba Chamberline.

Friar Facts

Chase Headley's bomb was the first homer and RBI of his young, promising career. Headley filled in for the injured Kevin Kouzmanoff at third base while Paul McAnulty roamed left.

Giles and Gonzalez went back to back with 2 outs in the 7th inning.

Yanks Blank Friars

The New York Yankees played longball en route to their 8-0 victory to open a 3 game set against the visiting Padres Tuesday night. Randy Wolf missed with location through the night and the Friars played some sloppy defense behind him, but it was the New York pitchers lead by Andy Pettitte that controlled the ballgame. Padres Chase Headley collected a couple of singles in his 2008 debut and slid up to the 6th slot in the order after Kevin Kouzmanoff was a late scratch due to a balky back (Kouz is day to day at this point). The Friars send Jake Peavy to the hill in Wednesday's contest to try to even the series.

FF Facts:

The Padres had 7 hits Tuesday, all singles.

A foul ball into the seats Tuesday caught a group of Padres fans who included FF contributor, Todd Clark, and his brother Timmy. With the exception of Headley making his debut with a couple knocks, seeing frequent FF readers on camera was the highlight!

Padres KO Kuroda

The Padres had to be worried this offseason with the Dodger's acquisition of Japanese phenom Hiroki Kuroda. After a decent start, Kuroda's shutto has gotten the Tom Selleck treatment, this time with a back-to-back bombs from Brian Giles (to right center at Petco) and Adrian Gonzales (another opposite field shot), kicking off a 9-0 ass-whoopin'. Giles' shot gave Jake Peavy, making his first start since straining his forearm in mid-May, a 3 run lead, with A. Gone adding his 59th RBI of the season (he would eventaually add number 60). Gonzales' little big brother remained hot, with 3 more hits to boost his average to .322. The only Padre not to get in on the action was Kevin Kouzmanoff, who is in the midst of a major slump that has drawn his average down to .254. Bud Black had Peavy on a pitch count of about 90, but Jake would only require 72 to beat LA in 6 innings (4 punch outs, 3 hits allowed, 0 walks).

Notes:

• Luke Carlin managed RBI number one for this career with a first inning fielder's choice. He would then force in a run via a walk in the third.
  
• The Padres are now 8 games under .500.
• Joe Thatcher was optioned back to AAA Portland to make room for Peavy's return.
  

Peavy Close

Padres ace, Jake Peavy threw 45 pitches at close to game speed on Wednesday and came through with a smile and a sense of relief. Peavy felt as though he threw well and, more importantly, pain free. The 2007 Cy Young winner will throw again in Saturday with a return date to follow.

13 under and not sunk

The Padres will head into a 4 game series with the New York Mets sporting a disappointing 24-37 record that due to the weak play of the entire NL West division has San Diego just 8.5 games out of first. Don't get FF wrong, this is not a division championship caliber team. However, if the Friars can shave the deficit to 5 or fewer games by the deadline maybe they will look to add some players as opposed to selling off players to the highest bidder. There is a long way to go for San Diego to get from selling to buying, but the with each Arizona and Los Angeles loss, the sale date gets pushed back.

Padres Banks In

The San Diego Padres quietly picked up pitcher Josh Banks off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays earlier in the season, and that wire transaction is now paying off. Banks made his first start for the Friars Saturday in San Francisco and was extremely impressive tossing a complete game 6 hitter in the Friars 5-1 victory. FF would like to point out that Banks did not walk a batter, which kept his pitch count to just 101 for the game. Banks made a strong bid at a shut out as the Giants managed to plate a run with 2 outs in the 9th. Bud Black could not have asked for a better time for this complete game as his bullpen is taxed from last Sunday's (May 25th) 18 inning affair and the 13 frames played Friday night.

Friar Footnotes

Left handed Shawn Estes joined fellow starters Jake Peavy and Chris Young on the DL Saturday after fracturing the tip of his left thumb in a freak accident. Estes fell down the stairs leading to the Padres dugout during Friday night's game.

#21

The Pads will replace the injured Estes with Carlos Guevara, a Rule 5 draftee from the Reds organization, who will need to remain with the Padres through the remainder of the season or be offered back to the Reds for $25,000. When the right hander makes his first appearance, he will be the 21st pitcher the Friars have used in the young season.

Peavy Throws; Friars Swap Righties With M's

The Padres and ace Jake Peavy received good news after the latest MRI showed vast improvement in his right elbow. The 2007 Cy Young winner resumed throwing Tuesday and is working his way back to the mound. Tuesday night not only saw the Padres match a season high win streak (2 games), but the Friars also shipped rookie Jared Wells to Seattle for pitcher Cha Seung Baek. The right-handed South Korean is 29 with a 10-9 major league record in 24 starts (37 appearances) with an ERA of 4.96. The Friars plan to use Seung Baek as a bullpen arm who has the ability to start in a pinch.

Peavy Heads To DL

The 2007 triple crown and Cy Young winner will be placed on the Disabled List retroactive last Thursday to rest a sore elbow. Wil Ledezma replaced Peavy in the rotation Monday night and got knocked around a little, as did Justin Germano and to a lesser extent Sean Henn.

Peavy had a MRI done earlier on Monday, with the results being less severe than they could have been with the pain occurring close the the "Tommy John" ligament. Luckily for Peavy and the Friars their was no structural damage, but the swelling and strained muscle were more than enough to send him o the DL. The Padres will promote Joe Thatcher to fill the vacant roster spot. Thatcher has struggled this season posting an ERA of 6.75.

Peavy's Painful Pitching Elbow

FF, like all Frair fans out there, are holding our collective breaths in hope that Jake Peavy's MRI on Monday will not find any damage to Peavy's elbow. The injury has apparently caused the 2007 Cy Young award winner to skip bullpen sessions over his last 3 or 4 starts. Obviously, the last thing the struggling club needs is an injury to their franchise player. That said, FF urges caution with Peavy, preferring that the club doesn't let him rush back to potentially injure himself further.

Wil Ledezma will start in Peavy's place on Monday, marking the first need for an injury-related substitution in the rotation this season.

Familiar Game, Familiar Result

There is little to say about Friday evening's contest at Petco Park. The margin for victory was predictably razor thin, so the three run allowed by Jake Peavy over 6 innings was clearly too much for the Padres anemic offense to overcome (despite statistically ranking as a quality start). Glendon Rusch relived Peavy, allowing a bomb into the sandbox in right center field to Matt Holliday, giving the Rockies a 4-2 lead that would mark the final score. The Friars managed their first run on a ground rule double by Peavy, followed by an opposite field double by Brian Giles. Their second run came on a first-deck bomb into the Western Metal Supply building by Kevin Kouzmanoff, who had previously grounded into a pair of a double plays. Kouzmanoff had entered the game as the least likely batter in the league to ground into a double play. Newcomer Jody Gerut played hard and easily tossed Todd Helton trying to advance to third, but was hitless. Otherwise put, same poor play, same poor result.

Rotation Roundup 5 & 6: Starts 21-30

The rotation has consistently improved over the last two turns - even Justin Germano (relatively speaking). The root problem remains that this season isn't about the starting rotation's performance at the moment, but rather pinned to the performance of the offense. As we've previously discussed, one should expect to win a little more than 2/3 of quality starts (QS). Over these passes through the rotation, the starters posted 6 QS, but managed just 2 wins, half of what one might expect. In fact, Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, and Chris Young have all been stung with a loss while posting a QS.

There is much talk of Germano losing his spot in the rotation, possibly to Shaun Estes or Wil Ledezma. His continued poor outings, coupled with the razor thin margin the team has required to posts wins, supports this decision in the very short run.

UPDATE:
Padres.com reports Bud Black saying that if Germano is replaced, it will likely be with someone already on the big club. Reading between the lines, this almost certainly points to Wil Ledezma, who has been pitching fantastically thus far in the 2008 campaign.

Starts 21-25

Starts 26-30

Key Indicators per Rotation Pass

Peavy Paces Padre Victory

Jake Peavy was the stopper for San Diego, despite allowing a two run homer in the first to put the Padres down by 1. In recent weeks, this would have been enough to sink the Friars, but Peavy buckled down and the offensive showed signs of life on the way to defeating the Fish Saturday evening at Dolphin Stadium 7-2. The 2, 3, 4 and 5 hitters, Tadihito Iguchi, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jim Edmonds, respectively, all managed at least two hits to lead the barrage. To cap off the scoring, Gonzalez notched his third hit with an opposite field bomb (putting him on pace for 35 on the season). Every position player had a hit on the evening; this includes Callix Crabbe, who came in for Khalil Greene in the 7th to play shortstop. Greene's injury has is reported by Padres.com to be an irritated left eye, with no word on when he is likely to return to the lineup.

Peavy went 5 2/3 innings with 8 punchouts, but should have completed 6 if not for a missed strike three call by the home plate umpire on a back door slider. Cla Meredith and Heath Bell were brought and performed inline with traditional bullpen expectations. Bud Black finally found an comfortable inning for Joe Thatcher to work out the kinks in the ninth. After appearing a bit erratic, the now cut-fastball avoiding sidewinding southpaw, induced a double play and slick play from Kouz to end the game.

Crabbe Slick at Short
Crabbe did his best Khalil impression in the ninth with a nifty turn to complete a double play on the a feed from Iguchi. Earlier, Edmonds was easily tossed a second base on an apparent missed run and hit with Crabbe at the plate.

Marlins Announcing Crew
These guys don't call the best game in the league, but FF gives them credit for being one of the few opposing duos that call it fair enough that we don't have to break out the mute button.

Rotation Roundup 4: Starts 16-20

The fourth pass through the rotation wasn't pretty. A pair of quality starts (QS) in games 16 and 18 were squandered by the offense and turned into losses. In fact, game 16 went 22 innings, forcing Greg Maddux to save the bullpen despite being tagged for 9 runs early in the game 17. While this certainly increased the level of admiration the team and fans have for Maddux, it isn't exactly a situation anyone wants to see repeated. This 113 pitch outing marked the first time Maddux had eclipsed the 100 pitch barrier since July 19, 2006, with 102 tosses that day. To find and outing with a greater than or equal number of pitches for Maddux, one has to reach back into August of the 2005 season. Randy Wolf turned in a respectable outing for the only win in the rotation of the bullpen during this five game strech. The real story here is the Padres ability to capitalize only once in three very winnable performances turned out by their starters. We also have to show real concern for the position that Maddux was put into - hopefully he will rebound without additional wear and tear on his arm based on the extraordinary performance in game 17.

Key Indicators per Rotation Pass

Germano Shelled

Justin Germano entered the evening as one of the top five pitchers in National League ERA. After allowing 4 runs on 9 pitches, and 10 in 3.1 innings, he took a big loss Monday night at Minute Maid Park with former President George Herbert Walker Bush and his wife Bar in attendance. Wil Ledezma pitched an out shy of 4 scoreless innings in relief before giving way to Kevin Cameron, who tossed a perfect 8th. Padre hitting was good - for the Padres. 6 of 8 knocks went for extra bases while both Jim Edmonds and Adrian Gonzalez reached the Minute Maid porch for bases empty, opposite field bombs. Unfortunately, the Friars seem to be making a habit of losing big or wining tight. The combination of Minute Maid's friendly conditions and Jake Peavy's pitching will hopefully bring positive results Tuesday night.

Iguchi Occupies Eight Hole
Tad Iguchi has been mired in a deep slump and was dropped by manager Bud Black into the eighth spot in the order Monday. He responded with a single and a walk in 4 trips to the plate.

Flashing Some Leather
Both Brian Giles and Gonzalez made nifty catches in right field. Gonzalez went Willie Mays on ball down the line that was looking like an extra base bloop before he reached out to snag the out. Giles made a nice sliding catch of a Geoff Blum liner as well.

Bard is Back
Josh Bard threw out another runner, pushing his season rate for retiring would-be base thieves to 21%. This is significantly better the 8% mark he posted in 2007 and is especially impressive given the amount of work he's been receiving of late, which is bound to take its toll as the games add up.

Rotation Roundup 3: Starts 11-15

The third pass through the rotation finally saw Padre starters come down to earth a bit. Start 12 marked the first non-quality start of the season for the quintet (Chris Young) and game 15 saw the first quality start where the starter was tagged with the loss (Justin Germano). In all, the rotation was pedestrian with a 3.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, though these numbers a largely skewed by Chris Young's disastrous outing. Randy Wolf tossed a 1 hitter through 7 innings in his turn and Greg Maddux turned in 5 fantastic innings in 95 degree heat. In summary, the starters still provided the Padres 4 quality opportunities to win, of which 3 were converted. This group continues to the be lone bright spot in the '08 campaign. While round 3 might not have been hyper productive, FF and any other club in baseball would certainly take it as their average pass through the starting 5. Kudos to PYMW&G once again.

Key Indicators per Rotation Pass

Padres Implode In Eighth

The Padres played it close Wednesday night, but a 7 run eighth frame put the Rockies ahead for good. Cla Meredith and Glendon Rusch were victimized for for four and three runs, respectively, for an eighth frame whose score San Diego fans more generally associate with an Antonio Cromartie interception return. This, and the Padres lacking offense, spoiled another strong Justin Germano quality start (7 innings of 3 runs ball) and hung him with a loss. Brian Giles was a one man wrecking crew with an RBI double and triple, the first a ground rule variety to left center and latter off Petco Park's scoreboard in right (for the second consecutive evening). Only Scott Hairston scratched out an additional Padre hit. The Friars will look to bounce back tomorrow behind the dominating Jake Peavy.

Peavy Off, But Singles Lead the Way

Jake Peavy clearly didn't have his best pitches Friday night, but his mindset pushed him through his third quality start - and win - of the season. The offense picked up Peavy with a barrage of singles and a lone double to plate seven runs. Six Friars amassed multiple hit games with Kevin Kouzmanoff leading the way with a trio out of the cleanup spot. Callix Crabbe showed his impact in the eighth innings while pinch running for the ever-reliable Tony Clark. He easily stole second, then scored on Tad Iguchi's dribbler through the 3.5 hole. Given the continued struggles of future hall of famer Trevor Hoffman, who was again touched up for a run, despite earning a save, these kinds of insurance runs cannot be understated. The bullpen's other slow starter, Joe Thatcher also coughed up another run.

Tossed
Scotty Hairston threw a strike to Josh Bard to erase Dodger Russell Martin, who came into the plate with a half-hearted shoulder. Bard and Martin exchanged pats on their midsection and butt, respectively, to show no ill will.

Coach Hill Would Be Proud
Iguchi continues to impress FF by playing ball the right way (for you PLHS alumni out there, that means Coach Hill's way). On a run-and-hit, Iguchi practically threw his bat to protect flat-of-foot Brian Giles at second.

The Ghost of Bruce Bochey
Bud Black was momentarily possessed by Bruce Bochey at Dodger Stadium, instructing Jake Peavy to forgo a sacrifice bunt attempt to instead ground into an inning ending double play in the second.

Friar Rotation Round Up 2: Starts 6-10

The starting rotation continued their torrid pace during the second pass though the quintet, posting an astonishing 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 5 quality starts. Tough to complain about that kind of production from the pitchers that shoulder the load for the entire staff. That said, while the winning percentage in quality starts from 1984 to 1991 was .674, the Friars posted a .400 over their last five games and just .500 for the 10 quality starts in 2008 (effectively). A starter has yet to produce a non-quality start, yet the team has just 5 wins to show for it. Nobody should get their underwear in a bunch at this juncture, but it certainly isn't encouraging.

While many expected the team to struggle at bat, not too many could have foreseen the perennially solid bullpen's swoon. Expected to the heart of the relief corps, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Cla Meredith and Joe Thatcher have taken all 5 team losses to go with a 5.59 ERA. In fact, both Thatcher and Hoffman has allowed more earned runs in 4 and 3 2/3 innings, respectively, than Greg Maddux has in 13. FF expects the pen to right its ship and the rotation to fall a little bit from its near perfect performance. The real question will be if the offense can provide enough run support to make the stellar staff's stuff stick.

Dirty Hand Raises Rediculous Rumor

A blog has noticed what appears to be a dirty Jake Peavy hand, insinuating that he may be doing untoward. Bud Black has come to Peavy's defense, saying it just the combination of rosen and plain old dirt. Peavy himself has welcomed a "hand check" anytime. FF thinks there is absolutely nothing to this.

Friar Rotation Round Up 1: Starts 1-5

Conventional wisdom for the 2008 season predicts that the Friars will only go as far as their pitching staff takes them. More to the point, the team's strength is supposed to be in its starting pitching staff. As such, we at FF thought it would be interesting to track each pass through the rotation to see how their performance is affecting the bottom line. This will be the first installment of 32.4 passes through the fab five.

It's hard to imagine the starters putting the club in a better position to win than it did during the initial pass through the rotation. Technically, 4 of 5 times the group toed the rubber they posted quality starts (QS). In reality, Chris Young was just one out shy of a QS himself, so FF will go ahead and round that up to a perfect five-for-five. A sub 1.50 ERA to go with an excellent WHIP of 1.08 and nearly two of three pitches finding the strike zone seems to support conventional wisdom. In fact, the Friars only posted three wins in these five games. If this doesn't correspond to FF's projections that the rotation would be compromised by a weak lineup, we aren't sure what does. Still, this pace would put the Friars in for a 97 win season, so we can't complain too much. Nice job fab five - let's hope to see these trends continue. We'd ask for a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio, but with the rotation averaging just short of 6 innings a start, that may be too much.

Peavy Domination Tour Hits Stride - Completely

Jake Peavy did what Padres fans like best - totally, utterly and unapologetically beat LA to a pulp, 4-1. The 2007 Cy Young Award winner lead the Friars over the hated Dodgers with a complete game performance. He fanned eight against just two hits and a single walk. The free pass came in the 9th inning, but was quickly erased with a tailor made double play. The game was decided early when the Friars jumped on Dodger starter Brad Penny for 4 runs on 5 singles in the bottom of the first. The dominant story of the game is quite completely told by the following FanGraph:

Graph from FanGraphs.com

Jim Edmonds returned the to lineup and looked a little out of practice on a couple of plays to left center resulting in a triple and double, respectively. To make room on the roster, Jody Gerut was sent to Portland, as expected given that he is optionable and Paul McAnulty is not.

Peavy & Mates Blank 'Stros In Opener

The 2008 Padres campaign opened with a familiar sight as the Friars cruise to a 4-0 shutout victory over the visiting Houston Astros. The season opener is always a special occasion, however, with good friends and great hurlers Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt squaring off there was more allure around game 1 of 162. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner found himself in his tightest spot in the first inning after a leadoff single (and stolen base, who knew), and an one out walk; a couple of harmless infield pop-ups later the Friars were in their dugout taking their cuts versus Houston ace Roy Oswalt.

From that point forward Padres ace Jake Peavy took control of the game with his electric right arm and his bat. After the Friars wasted a 1 out double by new 2nd sacker Taditho Iguchi and a Kouzmanoff laser off Oswalt's hip in the first, the Pads took a 1-0 lead in the second inning via a Peavy sacrifice fly to left. San Diego's second run came courtesy a line drive single over the head of Astro shortstop Miguel Tejada by, you guessed it, Jake Peavy.

The Friars ace tossed 7 shut out innings while surrendering only 3 hits and striking out 4 on his way to his first win of the '08 season. From there, the Padres pen took care of the rest with Heath Bell working the 8th and Cla Meredith facing the minimum thanks to a great Scott Hairston throw nailing an over aggressive Tejada trying to stretch a single into a double to leadoff the 9th. All said and done, the Padres totaled 14 basehits in route to a typical 4-0 victory to begin the 2008 season.

San Diego Short Hops:

5 Padre hitters had a 2 or more knocks; Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene, Josh Bard, and Paul McAnulty collected two hits apiece while Tad Iguchi swatted two doubles and a single to endear himself to the San Diego crowd early in the season.

The Padres played flawless defense after a questionable spring scattered with errors. It was a pleasant surprise for FF and Pads fans worldwide.

San Diego native and Aztec alum, Tony Clark, wasted little time getting in the Padres scorebook as he smashed the first pitch he saw in Padres colors for a RBI single.

Tuesday night features All Star starter Chris Young after his offseason workouts that centered around his larger midsection.

This Bud's For You

The San Diego Padres extended the contract of manager Bud Black through the 2009 season on Tuesday. As a rookie skipper last season, Black lead the Friars to a 89-74 record, and earned a spot in a one game playoff for the NL Wildcard. Black provided longtime Padres fans a breath of fresh air last season highlighted by his handling of rookie Kevin Kouzmanoff, who got off to an extremely rough first month of the season; Kouz came on strong down the stretch and ended as the 3 hole hitter in the Friars lineup. In years past FF has continually seen ex manager Bruce Bochy stick with unproductive veteran players and bury the younger players on the bench (with the exception of Sean Burroughs).

Black made the transition from the American League (where he was the pitching coach for the California Angels of Anaheim in LA) to the NL and handled double switches and pinch hitting situations well. The former MLB hurler handled his pitching staff as well as could be expected while he and pitching coach Darren Balsley helped Jake Peavy realize his full potential and garner huge returns from Mets castoff Heath Bell.

FF is happy to see Buddy Black on the top step of the Padres dugout for a minimum of 2 more years. We are sure that many former big league hurlers are also excited as Black helped dispel the notion that pitchers do not make acquit mangers.

Predicted Padres Pitching Prowess

The Friars are keeping the faith that their vaunted pitching staff can carry the team. That said, we thought it would be interesting to check out how the Bill James Handbook 2008 projects the staff to perform. For the club's presumed optimal starting rotation, the Handbook breaks it down as follows (Pitcher - W/L/ERA/IP/WHIP/K):

• Jake Peavy - 15 8 3.23 212 1.17 217


• Chris Young - 13 8 3.34 186 1.18 166


• Greg Maddux - 13 9 3.60 200 1.20 121


• Randy Wolf - 5 6 4.32 100 1.37 81


• Mark Prior - 5 4 3.60 75 1.23 85

Immediately striking is the similarity that the projections have in rotation spots one through three. Nobody appreciates Maddux's low walk rate more than FF, and we don't want to take anything away from him, but he hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 2003 season. Peavy's numbers seem overly skewed by his injury-marred 2006 campaign while the projection ignores Chris Young's iterative, season-by-season improvement trend (see graph below). Friar fans will have to hope for better returns than those suggested by the Handbook if they are to remain competitive in the NL West.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

A big part of the team's success will likely depend on the performance of the bullpen. Nobody puts together a better 'pen than Kevin Towers (if only he could do the same for right-handed power hitters, but I digress). Once again the projections seem a little high, this time looking at player - ERA/S/IP/WHIP/K per 9:

• Trevor Hoffman - 2.80 39 61 1.07 8.26


• Heath Bell - 3.10 1 83 1.16 9.70


• Cla Meredith - 3.51 0 82 1.22 6.91


• Kevin Cameron - 3.90 0 60 1.47 7.65


• Joe Thatcher - No Handbook project listed

Dynamic Duos

The Padres have what FF considers to be the premier 1-2 punch in all of baseball with NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, and All Star Chris Young. The San Diego organization has placed a premium on pitching and it has payed off recently with 2 division titles and a trip to a wild card play in game in the last 3 seasons. There will be a number of teams who will compete with the 2 aces of the Padres this year, here's a look at the pitching pairs who will be scary for offenses to face in '08. The following list shows team, duo and combined Record, IP, and ERA, respectively:

• Padres, Jake Peavy*, Chris Young#, 28-14 396 1/3 2.79


• Diamondbacks, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren^, 33-19 459 3.04


• Indians, C.C. Sabathia*, Fausto Carmona, 38-15 456 3.14


• Mariners, Erik Bedard^, Felix Hernandez, 27-12 372 1/3 3.55


• Mets, Johan Santana^, Pedro Martinez#, 18-14 247 3.24
  

* Won Cy Young award in 2007
# Lost significant time due to injury
^ Traded in offseason

Prior A Friar

Mark Prior has officially joined the San Diego Padres Baseball Club. It is a bit unclear when he will be healthy enough to join the rotation, but the Padres could have a lights-out staff of starters once he does. The current rotation figures to be:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Greg Maddux
4. Randy Wolf
5. Mark Prior/??? (until Prior is ready to pitch)

While the offensive side of the offseason has been a drag, Kevin Towers has done an excellent job of targeting rebounding pitchers with Petco Park's pitching allure. The exact terms of Priors deal are not yet know, but are likely to include a heavy dose of incentives.

UPDATE:
The AP is reporting that Prior signed a 1 year deal for $1M, with another $4.5M that could be tacked on based on performance milestones.

Sayonara Kosuke Fukudome

Kosuke Fukudome has chosen to accept an offer from the Cubs, reportedly around $50M for 4 years. While it remains to be seen what the Frairs actually offered Fukudome, it is widely rumored to be over $10M/year for at least 3 years. Otherwise put, the likely difference between the two clubs was about one veteran bench player/year. While the Padres will surely point to Jake Peavy's signing as a major commitment this offseason, the reality is that the farm system will have to do better for the Padres to sport hitting talent (which won't be brought in via free agency - ever). Whatever the excuse is today (we think it is TV revenue these days), the club seemingly was close enough to make this click and is in dire need of an outfielder(s). Considering that Giles will likely start the season on the DL, Cameron will be gone or suspended and Milton Bradley has already bolted, the spacious outfield is looking more so these days. We're fine with Scott Hairston getting a shot, but that still leaves the team an outfielder short. Please KT, don't make that extra outfielder Todd Walker.