Pads Plan Giles Retention

The Padres reportedly plan to retain the services of Brian Giles for the 2009 season, given doubts over a better replacement. This makes a lot of sense for the Friars, based on Giles' excellent season on his rejuvenated knee. Club's complete inability to upgrade center or left field in the 2007 offseason suggests that Friar fans can only hope this report is true. FF continues to find it baffling that a club that has repeatably worried about Paul McAnulty's fielding skills will trot him out in right field to spell Giles.

The report also suggests that both Randy Wolf and Greg Maddux remain on the block.

Kouz Pumps Up Pads

Kevin Kouzmanoff cashed in a very strong Greg Maddux outing in the bottom of the eighth inning, with a go ahead sacrifice fly to plate Brian Giles. Trevor Hoffman would strike out three in the ninth to save the 2-1 win, ending the Cubbies 9 game winning streak (the longest in MLB for 2008). Maddux allowed just 3 hits over 7 innings, with Heath Bell tacking on a scoreless eighth inning to notch the win. Scotty Hairston flexed his muscle to lead off the game for the Friars, knocking home run number 8 on the season. The Frairs would squander men in scoring position with zero or one out in the sixth and seventh before Giles led off the eighth frame with an opposite field double. Giles then took third on a relatively shallow fly to left center, taking advantage of Alfonso Soriano's weak arm. This heady base running would prove to be the difference in the game, as Kouzmanoff launched a fly ball to deep center, allowing Giles to easily beat former Friar Jim Edmonds' throw to the plate.

Maddux Wins #350; Hoffman Saves #530

The Friars broke their losing streak behind fantastic pitching from Greg Maddux, an Adrian Gonzalez 3 run blast and Hoffman shutting the door on the pesky Rockies. Maddux finally grabbed his 350th career win by pitching 6 innings, allowing one unearned run on an uncharacteristic error by the 17-time Gold Glove winner. He left the game with a 3-1 lead, staked by Gonzalez's bomb after Tad Iguchi and Brian Giles walks. Cla Meredith came in an pitched a very effective inning, following by a shaky outing by Heath Bell, who had command problems while allowing a run in a inning worked. With Hells Bells tolling, Hoffman showed renewed command with 87 MPH heat and typical change ups.

Carlin Starts
Luke Carlin caught the future Hall of Famers, Maddux and Hoffman. He looked spry behind the plate, but was overwhelmed at the plate, punching out 3 times. All told, the Friars struck out 12 times.

Base Stealing Wonders
The Padres managed stolen bases from Iguchi, Giles, Khalil Greene and Scott Hairston. In fact, the Padres treated the Rockies on the basepaths much as their have been treated by the league over the last couple of years.

Lineup Shakeup
Bud Black shuffled the lineup, moving Jody Gerut (who hit several balls hard, with anything falling) into the leadoff spot while shifting Giles to the 3 hole. Kevin Kouzmanoff hit 5th, with Paul McAnulty hitting 6th, followed by Greene and Carlin.

Rotation Roundup 5 & 6: Starts 21-30

The rotation has consistently improved over the last two turns - even Justin Germano (relatively speaking). The root problem remains that this season isn't about the starting rotation's performance at the moment, but rather pinned to the performance of the offense. As we've previously discussed, one should expect to win a little more than 2/3 of quality starts (QS). Over these passes through the rotation, the starters posted 6 QS, but managed just 2 wins, half of what one might expect. In fact, Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, and Chris Young have all been stung with a loss while posting a QS.

There is much talk of Germano losing his spot in the rotation, possibly to Shaun Estes or Wil Ledezma. His continued poor outings, coupled with the razor thin margin the team has required to posts wins, supports this decision in the very short run.

UPDATE:
Padres.com reports Bud Black saying that if Germano is replaced, it will likely be with someone already on the big club. Reading between the lines, this almost certainly points to Wil Ledezma, who has been pitching fantastically thus far in the 2008 campaign.

Starts 21-25

Starts 26-30

Key Indicators per Rotation Pass

Rotation Roundup 4: Starts 16-20

The fourth pass through the rotation wasn't pretty. A pair of quality starts (QS) in games 16 and 18 were squandered by the offense and turned into losses. In fact, game 16 went 22 innings, forcing Greg Maddux to save the bullpen despite being tagged for 9 runs early in the game 17. While this certainly increased the level of admiration the team and fans have for Maddux, it isn't exactly a situation anyone wants to see repeated. This 113 pitch outing marked the first time Maddux had eclipsed the 100 pitch barrier since July 19, 2006, with 102 tosses that day. To find and outing with a greater than or equal number of pitches for Maddux, one has to reach back into August of the 2005 season. Randy Wolf turned in a respectable outing for the only win in the rotation of the bullpen during this five game strech. The real story here is the Padres ability to capitalize only once in three very winnable performances turned out by their starters. We also have to show real concern for the position that Maddux was put into - hopefully he will rebound without additional wear and tear on his arm based on the extraordinary performance in game 17.

Key Indicators per Rotation Pass

Rotation Roundup 3: Starts 11-15

The third pass through the rotation finally saw Padre starters come down to earth a bit. Start 12 marked the first non-quality start of the season for the quintet (Chris Young) and game 15 saw the first quality start where the starter was tagged with the loss (Justin Germano). In all, the rotation was pedestrian with a 3.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, though these numbers a largely skewed by Chris Young's disastrous outing. Randy Wolf tossed a 1 hitter through 7 innings in his turn and Greg Maddux turned in 5 fantastic innings in 95 degree heat. In summary, the starters still provided the Padres 4 quality opportunities to win, of which 3 were converted. This group continues to the be lone bright spot in the '08 campaign. While round 3 might not have been hyper productive, FF and any other club in baseball would certainly take it as their average pass through the starting 5. Kudos to PYMW&G once again.

Key Indicators per Rotation Pass

Diamondbacks Crush Padres; They Only Needed 1 Inning To Do It

Perhaps suffering from a 22 inning hangover the Padres never had a chance in their Friday night contest in the Arizona desert, falling to the DBacks 9-0. Greg Maddux entered the game searching for his 350th victory and was greeted with a 34 pitch, 6 hit, 6 run inning. The sure fire HOFer seemed to miss on location through the rough first as every ball was scolded by the home team. In the inning, Jim Edmonds missed a cut off man and took questionable angles on 2 balls in the gap. FF has seen it through the early part of the season and Diamondback color man (SDSU Alum) Mark Grace stated very matter of factly that Edmonds makes those plays 5 years ago...this is not 5 years ago. The way the Friars are swinging thus far in 2008, 2 run leads seem insurmountable ~ a 6 run deficit seems like they should pack it in for the night.

In the bottom of the 6th inning Edmonds strikes again playing a ball hit to the track off his glove into a triple for Connor Jackson ~ Jackson who was just a double shy of the cycle bypassed the double for his second triple of the night. FF's patience with Edmonds bad routes and lack of speed is running very thin.

First:
Callix Crabbe and Colt Morton each made their first MLB starts on Friday.

Tip My Cap:
Although Maddux got shelled in the first inning, he tossed 7 innings of gutty baseball. Maddux knew that the Padres bullpen was paper thin, and his professionalism in a lost cause game was nothing short of admirable.

Getting Old, Really Old:
The Friars managed just 3 hits a night after scoring 1 run in 22 innings ~ exciting team to watch right now, thrilling really.

Padres Pick Up Series By One

The Friars squeezed by the Dodgers 1-0 on a hot but smog-less Sunday afternoon game at Chavez Ravine to win the weekend series two games to one. Greg Maddux left the 95 degree heat after tossing 67 pitches over 5 innings of two hit ball, striking out a pair against a single walk. The heart of bullpen performed as you'd expect on paper, tossing four zeros on the board across Joe Thatcher, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman, respectively. The Padres lone run came on a moderately deep fly ball on a high change piece in the forth to Paul McAnulty, who again spelled Brian Giles. For the second consecutive game the Friars lone run was the result of a rare extra base hit. After Jim Edmonds walked to lead off the inning, shortstop Khalil Greene doubled Edmonds to third, where McAnulty would later convert him. This was the lone extra base knock for Bud Black's club.

Bell's Velocity Remains a Concern
As has been mentioned over the course of the season, Bell is regularly around 90 mph this in 2008 after typically hitting mid-to-high 90s in 2007. So far Bell is getting the job done with his less electric stuff, posting a 1.04 ERA over 8.2 innings, but he's notched just two strikeouts in the young season. FF is a big fan of Bell's, but we are concerned about how the decreased velocity bodes for his future health. We've many times noted the front office's love affair with relievers that post high strikeout to walk ratios. Last year, Bell put up nearly 10 K/BB while logging an out short of 94 innings over 81 outing, so it is unclear how the dichotomy between his reduced stuff and results will settle with the club in the long run.

Friar Rotation Round Up 2: Starts 6-10

The starting rotation continued their torrid pace during the second pass though the quintet, posting an astonishing 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 5 quality starts. Tough to complain about that kind of production from the pitchers that shoulder the load for the entire staff. That said, while the winning percentage in quality starts from 1984 to 1991 was .674, the Friars posted a .400 over their last five games and just .500 for the 10 quality starts in 2008 (effectively). A starter has yet to produce a non-quality start, yet the team has just 5 wins to show for it. Nobody should get their underwear in a bunch at this juncture, but it certainly isn't encouraging.

While many expected the team to struggle at bat, not too many could have foreseen the perennially solid bullpen's swoon. Expected to the heart of the relief corps, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Cla Meredith and Joe Thatcher have taken all 5 team losses to go with a 5.59 ERA. In fact, both Thatcher and Hoffman has allowed more earned runs in 4 and 3 2/3 innings, respectively, than Greg Maddux has in 13. FF expects the pen to right its ship and the rotation to fall a little bit from its near perfect performance. The real question will be if the offense can provide enough run support to make the stellar staff's stuff stick.

Friar Rotation Round Up 1: Starts 1-5

Conventional wisdom for the 2008 season predicts that the Friars will only go as far as their pitching staff takes them. More to the point, the team's strength is supposed to be in its starting pitching staff. As such, we at FF thought it would be interesting to track each pass through the rotation to see how their performance is affecting the bottom line. This will be the first installment of 32.4 passes through the fab five.

It's hard to imagine the starters putting the club in a better position to win than it did during the initial pass through the rotation. Technically, 4 of 5 times the group toed the rubber they posted quality starts (QS). In reality, Chris Young was just one out shy of a QS himself, so FF will go ahead and round that up to a perfect five-for-five. A sub 1.50 ERA to go with an excellent WHIP of 1.08 and nearly two of three pitches finding the strike zone seems to support conventional wisdom. In fact, the Friars only posted three wins in these five games. If this doesn't correspond to FF's projections that the rotation would be compromised by a weak lineup, we aren't sure what does. Still, this pace would put the Friars in for a 97 win season, so we can't complain too much. Nice job fab five - let's hope to see these trends continue. We'd ask for a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio, but with the rotation averaging just short of 6 innings a start, that may be too much.

Hairston Launch Humbles Houston

The Padres have begun the 2008 season with two straight victories over the Houston Astros. The offense wasn't clicking on all cylinders as it was on opening night, but the Friars found Scott Hairston's 2 run blast enough to hold off Houston 2-1. The Padres had 2007 All Star, Chris Young, toeing the rubber on Tuesday and he battled through some control problems (5 walks in 5 2/3) to earn his first victory of the year. Young loaded the bases full of 'Stros after a base hit and 2 walks in the 6th. Skipper Bud Black turned the ball over to Joe Thatcher who got out of the jam after walking in the only Astro run of the game (and season). The lefty Thatcher retired the first batter of the 7th inning before giving way to side-winder Cla Meredith who cruised through the 2 batters he faced. Heath Bell worked a perfect 8th inning to set up baseball's all time saves leader in the top half of the 9th. Trevor Hoffman took his first steps into game action this year to the familiar sound of AC/DC's "Hells Bells". The Padres closer struck out the first and last batter he faced while working around a two out infield single.

Padres Points:

The Padres hand the ball to future Hall Of Fame hurler Greg Maddux on Wednesday night, the crafty right hander will attempt to keep pace with the top 2 pitchers in the Friar rotation.

Khalil Greene and Josh Bard each had multiple hit games with the Friar shortstop collecting 3, while the Padre backstop had 2. Brian Giles remains the only Padres regular without a hit through 2 games.

The Padres team ERA jumped all the way to 0.50 to kickoff the new year, Tuesday's 2-1 victory will be one of many close, low scoring affairs in 2008.

The Padres had a chance to extend their lead in the bottom half of the 8th (against former Friar Doug Brocail) after a 2 out Bard single sent Scott Hairston to second, an infield single by Paul McAnulty would have loaded the bases for a pinch hitter (presumably Tony Clark). Unfortunately, Scott Hairston got caught venturing too far off third after appearing to assume that P Mac would be called out at 1st.

Padres figure to start newly acquired Justin Huber in left tomorrow as the Astros will start a southpaw on the hill. Pads fans also figure to get their first view of the year of catcher Michael Barrett.

All time saves leader Trevor Hoffman is fashioning a longer hair style than in years past, reports out of spring training were that Mrs. Hoffman likes the longer locks.

Germano in Rotation for a Change

Big league pitchers need 3 solid pitches to be successful over the long run. In 2007, Justin Germano had a fantastic May, posting a 1.08 ERA, a 3-0 record and allowed a merger .515 OPS. He had two pitches and won just 4 games for the remainder of the season while posting 10 losses over that time. This spring, Germano has further developed his change up and has been inserted in the 5-hole of the rotation as a result. The development of this third pitch should go a long way towards keeping hitters honest - particularly given that it is a change up, thereby enhancing his fastball's effectiveness. Genmano's success may play a critical role in the 2008 campaign as the Friars boast a solid, but potentially fragile rotation, given the number of recovering and aging pitchers on the staff. With Randy Wolf and Mark Prior coming back from injuries and Greg Maddux not getting any younger, Germano may find himself bouncing throughout the rotation over the coarse of the year.

Predicted Padres Pitching Prowess

The Friars are keeping the faith that their vaunted pitching staff can carry the team. That said, we thought it would be interesting to check out how the Bill James Handbook 2008 projects the staff to perform. For the club's presumed optimal starting rotation, the Handbook breaks it down as follows (Pitcher - W/L/ERA/IP/WHIP/K):

• Jake Peavy - 15 8 3.23 212 1.17 217


• Chris Young - 13 8 3.34 186 1.18 166


• Greg Maddux - 13 9 3.60 200 1.20 121


• Randy Wolf - 5 6 4.32 100 1.37 81


• Mark Prior - 5 4 3.60 75 1.23 85

Immediately striking is the similarity that the projections have in rotation spots one through three. Nobody appreciates Maddux's low walk rate more than FF, and we don't want to take anything away from him, but he hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 2003 season. Peavy's numbers seem overly skewed by his injury-marred 2006 campaign while the projection ignores Chris Young's iterative, season-by-season improvement trend (see graph below). Friar fans will have to hope for better returns than those suggested by the Handbook if they are to remain competitive in the NL West.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

A big part of the team's success will likely depend on the performance of the bullpen. Nobody puts together a better 'pen than Kevin Towers (if only he could do the same for right-handed power hitters, but I digress). Once again the projections seem a little high, this time looking at player - ERA/S/IP/WHIP/K per 9:

• Trevor Hoffman - 2.80 39 61 1.07 8.26


• Heath Bell - 3.10 1 83 1.16 9.70


• Cla Meredith - 3.51 0 82 1.22 6.91


• Kevin Cameron - 3.90 0 60 1.47 7.65


• Joe Thatcher - No Handbook project listed

Friar Offseason a B?

Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman has graded the Padres' offseason maneuvering at a B level (above average!). Really? Of Kevin Tower's moves, Heyman says,

11. Padres. No one makes more worthwhile low-budget pickups than San Diego(Mark Prior, Randy Wolf, Tony Clark this winter). Maybe it's the lure of San Diego, I'm not sure. Jim Edmonds may have a resurgence back home in Southern California, too. But I still can't help but feel Barry Bonds could turn it into a dynamo. B

IF KT's low monetary bets on Prior and Wolf pay off, then this offseason will be at best above average. While FF likes these moves, the reality is that the bar has been raised by the competition the already hyper-competitive National League West. These moves may not expose the Padres to much payroll risk, but they certainly expose them to a tremendous amount of performance risk. Should either pitcher falter, KT will have to start from scratch.

Tony Clark is a good pickup for the clubhouse and to spell Adrian Gonzalez, but this a bit of reach in the above average classification. AJ Smith could argue that keeping a backup in Michael Turner was a major offseason move, but he didn't have have to plug six spots in the starting lineup (LF, CF, 2B, C, SP4, SP5). Speaking of these positions, LF remains wide open. FF likes Scott Hairston and would love to see Chase Headley emerge, but when the team can't anoint a green player as the presumptive starter, it's hard to argue the void is filled. Mike Cameron for Jim Edmonds is a wash in center at best. Tadahito Iguchi is clearly an upgrade over the 2007 2B platoon. FF continues to be be disturbed by apparently satisfaction with the unchanged backstops.

A quick sidebar for the national media: Get off the Padres-Barry Bonds obsession. You think that people freaked when Burger King stopped selling the Whopper? San Diego would embrace Al Davis before Barry Bonds.

Some positive things did happen over the offseason: Jake Peavy was signed to a contract extension, Greg Maddux was brought back, the Terrmel Sledge experiment ended, not to mention some potential pitching and bench depth was added. Guess FF must have forgotten when treading water became an above average effort. Either Milton Bradley or Kosuke Fukudome could have made the grade a B+ or better; a pre- or in-season move could still push the Friars to the next level, but FF thinks KT will stay the course until he has a better feel for Hairston and Headley.

Prior A Friar

Mark Prior has officially joined the San Diego Padres Baseball Club. It is a bit unclear when he will be healthy enough to join the rotation, but the Padres could have a lights-out staff of starters once he does. The current rotation figures to be:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Greg Maddux
4. Randy Wolf
5. Mark Prior/??? (until Prior is ready to pitch)

While the offensive side of the offseason has been a drag, Kevin Towers has done an excellent job of targeting rebounding pitchers with Petco Park's pitching allure. The exact terms of Priors deal are not yet know, but are likely to include a heavy dose of incentives.

UPDATE:
The AP is reporting that Prior signed a 1 year deal for $1M, with another $4.5M that could be tacked on based on performance milestones.