Carlin Moves to 3-0

Luke Carlin is a rabbits foot for a struggling Friars team, moving to 3-0 as a starter with the club's 4-3 win over the Cubs on a rainy Tuesday evening. Shawn Estes made his first start out of the rotation's 5 hole, earning the win (the 100th of his career) while allowing 3 earned runs over 5 1/3 innings; he overcame a leadoff bomb from Alfonso Soriano and was then spelled by another excellent relief outing by Cla Meredith. Heath Bell bridged the 8th inning, handing the ball the Trevor Hoffman, who posted his 7th save of the season with crisply located fastballs. Khalil Greene provided the major jolt for Bud Black's club, a 3 run homer that added on to Jody Gerut's RBI double in the 4 run 4th. Edgar Gonzalez made his first major league start, playing a shaky hot corner, but pounding out a couple of solid knocks. Adrian's big (little) brother runs the bases hard, reminding FF of the kind of effort that Eric Owens once displayed at the Murph (Gerut also reminds us of Mr. Owens' hustle). In all, the Padres have turned thing around to provide a glimmer of a hope for restoring the seemingly lost season, winning three of their last four.

Peavy Paces Padre Victory

Jake Peavy was the stopper for San Diego, despite allowing a two run homer in the first to put the Padres down by 1. In recent weeks, this would have been enough to sink the Friars, but Peavy buckled down and the offensive showed signs of life on the way to defeating the Fish Saturday evening at Dolphin Stadium 7-2. The 2, 3, 4 and 5 hitters, Tadihito Iguchi, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jim Edmonds, respectively, all managed at least two hits to lead the barrage. To cap off the scoring, Gonzalez notched his third hit with an opposite field bomb (putting him on pace for 35 on the season). Every position player had a hit on the evening; this includes Callix Crabbe, who came in for Khalil Greene in the 7th to play shortstop. Greene's injury has is reported by Padres.com to be an irritated left eye, with no word on when he is likely to return to the lineup.

Peavy went 5 2/3 innings with 8 punchouts, but should have completed 6 if not for a missed strike three call by the home plate umpire on a back door slider. Cla Meredith and Heath Bell were brought and performed inline with traditional bullpen expectations. Bud Black finally found an comfortable inning for Joe Thatcher to work out the kinks in the ninth. After appearing a bit erratic, the now cut-fastball avoiding sidewinding southpaw, induced a double play and slick play from Kouz to end the game.

Crabbe Slick at Short
Crabbe did his best Khalil impression in the ninth with a nifty turn to complete a double play on the a feed from Iguchi. Earlier, Edmonds was easily tossed a second base on an apparent missed run and hit with Crabbe at the plate.

Marlins Announcing Crew
These guys don't call the best game in the league, but FF gives them credit for being one of the few opposing duos that call it fair enough that we don't have to break out the mute button.

Wolf Wows Again

Randy Wolf had another fine outing, pacing the Padres to break out of their slump and post a 9-4 triumph over the Diamondbacks Sunday afternoon at Chase Field. During his 6 plus innings, Wold went toe-to-tow with Randy Johnson and struck out 7. Cla Meredith, Heath Bell and Glendon Rusch each posted scoreless outings in relief. The Friar offense was on fire with 4 doubles and a home run. Justin Huber got the nod in left with Scott Hairston sliding over to center and Callix Crabbe making his third consecutive start, this time in right. All three drove in runs, with Hairston picking a pair and Huber netting three on bomb off Johnson that went all the way to his hometown or Melborne, Australia. Khalil Greene had three hits, two of which were doubles. He also atoned from his error on Saturday with a couple slick plays, but none more so than a fantastic pickup behind second, 270 degree turn and laser to first to end the game. The replay clearly showed the runner was safe, but that didn't take away from the fabulous play.

Bell's velocity ticking up
We recently discussed that Bell's velocity had been down, but not affecting his results. Over his last couple of outings, more pitches have reached the 93 to 94 MPH range, moving back into the low end of his 2007 fastball range.

Crabbe to Start Four Straight?
Bud Black may opt to have Crabbe spell Kevin Kouzmanoff at third on Monday, which would also allow Crabbe a number of games to settle into MLB play. He's coming off a solid game, so now might be the best time.

On the Minute Maid
The Padres head to Houston for a quick 2 game series against the Astros, before heading back home to host San Fransisco and Arizona. Their next off day is Monday, April 28.

Padres Implode In Eighth

The Padres played it close Wednesday night, but a 7 run eighth frame put the Rockies ahead for good. Cla Meredith and Glendon Rusch were victimized for for four and three runs, respectively, for an eighth frame whose score San Diego fans more generally associate with an Antonio Cromartie interception return. This, and the Padres lacking offense, spoiled another strong Justin Germano quality start (7 innings of 3 runs ball) and hung him with a loss. Brian Giles was a one man wrecking crew with an RBI double and triple, the first a ground rule variety to left center and latter off Petco Park's scoreboard in right (for the second consecutive evening). Only Scott Hairston scratched out an additional Padre hit. The Friars will look to bounce back tomorrow behind the dominating Jake Peavy.

Padres Pick Up Series By One

The Friars squeezed by the Dodgers 1-0 on a hot but smog-less Sunday afternoon game at Chavez Ravine to win the weekend series two games to one. Greg Maddux left the 95 degree heat after tossing 67 pitches over 5 innings of two hit ball, striking out a pair against a single walk. The heart of bullpen performed as you'd expect on paper, tossing four zeros on the board across Joe Thatcher, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman, respectively. The Padres lone run came on a moderately deep fly ball on a high change piece in the forth to Paul McAnulty, who again spelled Brian Giles. For the second consecutive game the Friars lone run was the result of a rare extra base hit. After Jim Edmonds walked to lead off the inning, shortstop Khalil Greene doubled Edmonds to third, where McAnulty would later convert him. This was the lone extra base knock for Bud Black's club.

Bell's Velocity Remains a Concern
As has been mentioned over the course of the season, Bell is regularly around 90 mph this in 2008 after typically hitting mid-to-high 90s in 2007. So far Bell is getting the job done with his less electric stuff, posting a 1.04 ERA over 8.2 innings, but he's notched just two strikeouts in the young season. FF is a big fan of Bell's, but we are concerned about how the decreased velocity bodes for his future health. We've many times noted the front office's love affair with relievers that post high strikeout to walk ratios. Last year, Bell put up nearly 10 K/BB while logging an out short of 94 innings over 81 outing, so it is unclear how the dichotomy between his reduced stuff and results will settle with the club in the long run.

Friar Rotation Round Up 2: Starts 6-10

The starting rotation continued their torrid pace during the second pass though the quintet, posting an astonishing 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 5 quality starts. Tough to complain about that kind of production from the pitchers that shoulder the load for the entire staff. That said, while the winning percentage in quality starts from 1984 to 1991 was .674, the Friars posted a .400 over their last five games and just .500 for the 10 quality starts in 2008 (effectively). A starter has yet to produce a non-quality start, yet the team has just 5 wins to show for it. Nobody should get their underwear in a bunch at this juncture, but it certainly isn't encouraging.

While many expected the team to struggle at bat, not too many could have foreseen the perennially solid bullpen's swoon. Expected to the heart of the relief corps, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Cla Meredith and Joe Thatcher have taken all 5 team losses to go with a 5.59 ERA. In fact, both Thatcher and Hoffman has allowed more earned runs in 4 and 3 2/3 innings, respectively, than Greg Maddux has in 13. FF expects the pen to right its ship and the rotation to fall a little bit from its near perfect performance. The real question will be if the offense can provide enough run support to make the stellar staff's stuff stick.

No Extra Bases In Extra Innings

Benji Molina's walk off homer (second of the game) in the bottom of the 11th capped a frustrating night by the bay for the Friars, the Giants even the series with the 3-2 win. San Diego's offense produced 13 hits, for just 13 total bases. Without the stellar pitching by the Padres, this team's lack of punch would be even more glaring. Cla Meredith took the loss while working in his second inning of relief and watched a down and in slider pulled over the left field wall by the Giants slugging catcher.

Randy Wolf threw well for the second time in two San Diego outings, however the southpaw didn't factor into the decision in either game. The pen kept the station to station Friars in the game until the 9th when a lead off walk issued to Josh Bard hurt San Francisco after a line drive down the left field line by pinch hitter Tony Clark and a sacrifice fly scored the Padres catcher. Besides the lack of extra base knocks the Padres ran into another out on the bases that cost them a chance at a huge inning. With the bases juiced and no outs Khalil Greene, put a charge into a ball to left that hit off the fielders glove; what seemed like a break for San Diego ended up costing them when the runner on 2nd (Kouzmanoff) thought the ball was caught and returned to second only to be forced out at 3rd.

You Can Hang Star...
In one of the best defensive plays you will ever see by a first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez snared a ground ball on his way to tapping the first base bag before throwing a strike across the diamond to force the runner at 3rd. Making that double play more impressive was that it came with no outs in the bottom of the 10th to help Cla Meredith side step a lead off single and stolen base. Kouzmanoff deserves credit as well by blocking the bag to assist in the twin killing.

Firsts
Callix Crabbe collect his first big league knock, a line drive single with 2 outs in the top of the 10th at AT&T Park.

Scott Hairston became the first Padre to be ejected this season, the home plate umpire gave the left fielder a quick thumb while arguing a check swing strike three.

Padres used all of their position players and even dipped into their starting staff when they used Jake Peavy as a pinch runner in the 9th inning.

Four!
A night after Adrian Gonzalez picked up 4 base hits, Brian Giles added 4 singles to his stat sheet

Hairston Launch Humbles Houston

The Padres have begun the 2008 season with two straight victories over the Houston Astros. The offense wasn't clicking on all cylinders as it was on opening night, but the Friars found Scott Hairston's 2 run blast enough to hold off Houston 2-1. The Padres had 2007 All Star, Chris Young, toeing the rubber on Tuesday and he battled through some control problems (5 walks in 5 2/3) to earn his first victory of the year. Young loaded the bases full of 'Stros after a base hit and 2 walks in the 6th. Skipper Bud Black turned the ball over to Joe Thatcher who got out of the jam after walking in the only Astro run of the game (and season). The lefty Thatcher retired the first batter of the 7th inning before giving way to side-winder Cla Meredith who cruised through the 2 batters he faced. Heath Bell worked a perfect 8th inning to set up baseball's all time saves leader in the top half of the 9th. Trevor Hoffman took his first steps into game action this year to the familiar sound of AC/DC's "Hells Bells". The Padres closer struck out the first and last batter he faced while working around a two out infield single.

Padres Points:

The Padres hand the ball to future Hall Of Fame hurler Greg Maddux on Wednesday night, the crafty right hander will attempt to keep pace with the top 2 pitchers in the Friar rotation.

Khalil Greene and Josh Bard each had multiple hit games with the Friar shortstop collecting 3, while the Padre backstop had 2. Brian Giles remains the only Padres regular without a hit through 2 games.

The Padres team ERA jumped all the way to 0.50 to kickoff the new year, Tuesday's 2-1 victory will be one of many close, low scoring affairs in 2008.

The Padres had a chance to extend their lead in the bottom half of the 8th (against former Friar Doug Brocail) after a 2 out Bard single sent Scott Hairston to second, an infield single by Paul McAnulty would have loaded the bases for a pinch hitter (presumably Tony Clark). Unfortunately, Scott Hairston got caught venturing too far off third after appearing to assume that P Mac would be called out at 1st.

Padres figure to start newly acquired Justin Huber in left tomorrow as the Astros will start a southpaw on the hill. Pads fans also figure to get their first view of the year of catcher Michael Barrett.

All time saves leader Trevor Hoffman is fashioning a longer hair style than in years past, reports out of spring training were that Mrs. Hoffman likes the longer locks.

Cla Corrals Cactus Competition

Cla Meredith was nothing short of a phenom in 2006 while allowing 6 earned runs in 50 2/3 innings and posting 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He even managed to hold opponents scoreless for one out shy of 34 consecutive innings. Last spring, he responded by allowing 8 runs in 8 1/3 innings. Much was made of this precipitous decline, particularly that the dessert air affecting his sink, but all expected a rebound in the pitcher-friendly parks of the NL West. Then the season came and his ERA increased more than three-fold to a still respectable, but unspectacular 3.50, while his WHIP nearly doubled and his strikeout to walk ratio fell slightly to 3.47-1. The new year has Friar fans hearkening back to 2006 as Cla has rebounded to post a 1.80 ERA to go with a 9-1 strikeout to walk ratio and 0.80 WHIP. His 5 innings pitched is certainly a small sample size, but FF is encouraged by what could once again be a shutdown 7th, 8th, 9th combination in the '08 bullpen, with Meredith, Heath Bell and Trevor Hoffman, respectively. A rebounded Meredith will also take some pressure off of Bell, who logged more than 13 innings in excess of Cla on 2007, despite pitching in nearly the same number of contests. The 'pen will need to be sharp to help maintain the meager leads the offense is likely to generate.

Predicted Padres Pitching Prowess

The Friars are keeping the faith that their vaunted pitching staff can carry the team. That said, we thought it would be interesting to check out how the Bill James Handbook 2008 projects the staff to perform. For the club's presumed optimal starting rotation, the Handbook breaks it down as follows (Pitcher - W/L/ERA/IP/WHIP/K):

• Jake Peavy - 15 8 3.23 212 1.17 217


• Chris Young - 13 8 3.34 186 1.18 166


• Greg Maddux - 13 9 3.60 200 1.20 121


• Randy Wolf - 5 6 4.32 100 1.37 81


• Mark Prior - 5 4 3.60 75 1.23 85

Immediately striking is the similarity that the projections have in rotation spots one through three. Nobody appreciates Maddux's low walk rate more than FF, and we don't want to take anything away from him, but he hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 2003 season. Peavy's numbers seem overly skewed by his injury-marred 2006 campaign while the projection ignores Chris Young's iterative, season-by-season improvement trend (see graph below). Friar fans will have to hope for better returns than those suggested by the Handbook if they are to remain competitive in the NL West.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

A big part of the team's success will likely depend on the performance of the bullpen. Nobody puts together a better 'pen than Kevin Towers (if only he could do the same for right-handed power hitters, but I digress). Once again the projections seem a little high, this time looking at player - ERA/S/IP/WHIP/K per 9:

• Trevor Hoffman - 2.80 39 61 1.07 8.26


• Heath Bell - 3.10 1 83 1.16 9.70


• Cla Meredith - 3.51 0 82 1.22 6.91


• Kevin Cameron - 3.90 0 60 1.47 7.65


• Joe Thatcher - No Handbook project listed