Estes Shelled In Catcus Debut

Shawn Estes toed the rubber in Fridays Cactus League opener and was able to record just 2 outs in the 8 Royals he faced. Estes is attempting to keep the 5th spot in the rotation warm for Mark Prior and while there are many more innings to toss this spring to make an impact, FF is sure that the southpaw hurler is not happy with his outing that included two free passes and four hits.

NOTES FROM PEORIA:

Callix Crabbe was slotted as San Diego's leadoff hitter Friday and responded with a double to officially kick start the Friars offense. Crabbe is a rule V draftee who can play an assortment of positions and brings speed to an otherwise station to station club.

Friars spring loaded sticks come alive late, but not enough to propel Pads to first win...

Jody Gerut Hot In Spring

Non roster invitee, Jody Gerut, has been swinging a hot stick early in the Padres camp. San Diego does not have an every day left fielder penned into LF and needs a reserve who has the ability to play all three OF positions with the aging Brian Giles and Jim Edmonds as their starters in right and center. As camp opens the Friars have Scott Hairston penciled in to left as the opening day starter, but that position is definitely up for grabs.

Gerut who has not played in MLB over the last 2 seasons due to knee injuries, rejuvenated his once bright career while hitting an impressive, league leading, .390 in Venezuelan winter ball. He has continued his tear by slapping a double yesterday and singling twice this afternoon in an annual charity game between Peoria Sports Complex residents, Pads and Seattle Mariners. The Mariners took the exhibition game tilt by a score of 10-3. With Cactus League play officially commencing tomorrow afternoon, the Padres staff has certainly taken notice of the strides that Jody Gerut is making. It remains to be the hot topic of the Padres camp and between the founding fathers of Friar Forum. Will it be the slight favorite in Hairston, the Padres top prospect Chase Headley, or the white hot Jody Gerut? Competition brings out the best in athletes and we at FF are exciting to see how it all plays out.

McAnulty Still Odd Man Out?

One can't help but wonder if Paul McAnulty remains the odd man out after a piece run in the San Diego Union-Tribune that says:

[Bud] Black said Scott Hairston “might have the inside track” in the left-field competition, “just based on what he did last year.”

Black then mentioned Jody Gerut, Paul McAnulty, Chase Headley, Chip Ambres and Jeff DaVanon. He added: “A year ago, we had Terrmel Sledge, Jose Cruz Jr., McAnulty. We feel we've got better names” this year.

How'd you like to be the only guy included in the implied worst names from last year...

Dynamic Duos

The Padres have what FF considers to be the premier 1-2 punch in all of baseball with NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, and All Star Chris Young. The San Diego organization has placed a premium on pitching and it has payed off recently with 2 division titles and a trip to a wild card play in game in the last 3 seasons. There will be a number of teams who will compete with the 2 aces of the Padres this year, here's a look at the pitching pairs who will be scary for offenses to face in '08. The following list shows team, duo and combined Record, IP, and ERA, respectively:

• Padres, Jake Peavy*, Chris Young#, 28-14 396 1/3 2.79


• Diamondbacks, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren^, 33-19 459 3.04


• Indians, C.C. Sabathia*, Fausto Carmona, 38-15 456 3.14


• Mariners, Erik Bedard^, Felix Hernandez, 27-12 372 1/3 3.55


• Mets, Johan Santana^, Pedro Martinez#, 18-14 247 3.24
  

* Won Cy Young award in 2007
# Lost significant time due to injury
^ Traded in offseason

Giles Feeling Good

All reports coming out of Peoria suggest that Padres RF Brian Giles is responding very well to off season micro-fracture knee surgery. This is good news for the Friars as the outfield has been (and continues to be) a huge topic and question mark all winter. Of course the 2008 model of Brian Giles isn't our younger brother's version that saw him pile up huge HR totals with the Pittsburgh Pirates in the small ballparks of the NL Central, but the San Diego native is a quality hard nose ball player. Giles excelled with a bum right knee last season as the club's leadoff man as he continued to get on base via the walk while keeping his batting average at a respectable level. In the last season of the 3 year $30M contract the Padres should be able to count on Giles for his solid on base percentage (FF fells that he will be around a solid .400) and opposing middle infielders will find themselves getting up off the dirt after trying to turn two with a tan Giles (Brian feels he plays better after a fresh tanning bed session) on first. With all things considered he is a major piece of the puzzle if the Friars are going to make noise this year in a difficult NL West.

Murton Out, Gross In?

FoxSports.com's KenRosenthal reports that those persistent rumors about the Cubs' Matt Murton have come to rest, with Padre GM Kevin Towers now possibly looking to the Brewers' Gabe Gross for help in the outfield. This rumor is apparently fueled by the crowded outfield situation in Milwaukee, to great extent helped by former Friar Mike Cameron's 25 game suspension for a second positive test for banned stimulants. Gross is also out of options, forcing the Brew Crew's hand. Gross is a former 1st round pick, selected 15th overall by the Blue Jays in 2001. He posted a respectiable .857 OPS for the Brewers in part time duty in 2006. His left handed bat doesn't seem idea for Petco Park, but that hasn't stopped KT in the past.

Fick Hoping to Return

After a stint in the unfriendly confines of the worst ballpark in America over the last two seasons (RFK Stadium), Robert Fick is back in camp with the Friars. Looking to earn a spot off the bench, Fick has been regularly catching this offseason. Over the course of his career, the 33 year old (34 on the Ides of March) has played 313 games at 1B, 178 in RF, 158 behind the plate, 71 at that evil, union-induced position for the American League, 31 in LF and 1 at 3B (those that recall/guessed Bruce Bochy was behind this are of course correct).

A little catching depth never hurts, but it is unlikely that Bud Black values carrying three catchers to the extent that Bochy did. Fick is often credited with exceptional patience at the plate, but his career mark of 3.91 pitches/plate appearance (P/PA) is just above the MLB average. Chase Headley is also supposed to excel at plate patience and his brief stay with the Padres in 2006 led to 4.14 P/PA. Nonetheless, Fick is a versatile veteran who is predicted by the Bill James Handbook 2008 to post a .677 OPS. We certainly have more confidence in him than Terrmel Sledge.

Fick was a budding actor in '80's, with parts in Cheers, Who's the Boss, Webster and a Gatorade commercial. FF would like to see this experience parlayed into one of two options for the upcoming season: "Where Everybody Knows Your Name" should be the diddy played when he comes to bat or, even better, the club should encourage everyone to shout "Fick" when he enters the game, hearkening back to Norm's arrival in Cheers.

Friars, Fighters Join Forces

The Padres have agreed to some degree of joint scouting and interchange of scouting information with the Nippon Ham Fighters, who represent Japan's northern island of Hokkaido (and playing in Sapporo). According to JapanBall.com, "... the Fighters play the Village People classic 'YMCA' over the sound system as cheerleaders and groundskeepers dance on the field during the fifth inning infield sweep." Yet another reason FF would have preferred Kevin Towers seek out a partnership with our official Japanese team, the Yakult Swallows.

Greene Reaches Out to Friar Fans

In January, FF reported that Khalil Greene was rumored to be waiting out his time with the Padres to jump ship to an team closer to home. Reports now indicate that Greene has sought to soften this perception, saying that,

"To get a good, fair deal is what you're looking for. I don't want to go anywhere. Ideally ... I can stay here for the rest of my career as a Major League baseball player."

Perhaps Khalil is expecting another improved season - and why not - which would improve his bargaining power. Time will tell, hopefully both sides will find something that works in the not too distant future.

Murton Rumors Still Alive

Matt Murton to the Padres rumors remain persistent, as reported by mlbtraderumors.com. FF doesn't expect any trades to go down soon, as Kevin Towers will likely see how Scott Hairston and Chase Headley look in Peoria. Even so, Murton isn't exactly the right handed power hitter the Padres covet. Nonetheless, The Bill James Handbook 2008 projects Murton to post a respectable .841 OPS in 2008. In comparison, James predicts a .932 clip from Headley with a .839 showing from Hairston (see OBP graph below). With these numbers, its hard to see a ton of upside in executing this trade, outside of a bench depth to offset an aging outfield.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

Friar Offseason a B?

Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman has graded the Padres' offseason maneuvering at a B level (above average!). Really? Of Kevin Tower's moves, Heyman says,

11. Padres. No one makes more worthwhile low-budget pickups than San Diego(Mark Prior, Randy Wolf, Tony Clark this winter). Maybe it's the lure of San Diego, I'm not sure. Jim Edmonds may have a resurgence back home in Southern California, too. But I still can't help but feel Barry Bonds could turn it into a dynamo. B

IF KT's low monetary bets on Prior and Wolf pay off, then this offseason will be at best above average. While FF likes these moves, the reality is that the bar has been raised by the competition the already hyper-competitive National League West. These moves may not expose the Padres to much payroll risk, but they certainly expose them to a tremendous amount of performance risk. Should either pitcher falter, KT will have to start from scratch.

Tony Clark is a good pickup for the clubhouse and to spell Adrian Gonzalez, but this a bit of reach in the above average classification. AJ Smith could argue that keeping a backup in Michael Turner was a major offseason move, but he didn't have have to plug six spots in the starting lineup (LF, CF, 2B, C, SP4, SP5). Speaking of these positions, LF remains wide open. FF likes Scott Hairston and would love to see Chase Headley emerge, but when the team can't anoint a green player as the presumptive starter, it's hard to argue the void is filled. Mike Cameron for Jim Edmonds is a wash in center at best. Tadahito Iguchi is clearly an upgrade over the 2007 2B platoon. FF continues to be be disturbed by apparently satisfaction with the unchanged backstops.

A quick sidebar for the national media: Get off the Padres-Barry Bonds obsession. You think that people freaked when Burger King stopped selling the Whopper? San Diego would embrace Al Davis before Barry Bonds.

Some positive things did happen over the offseason: Jake Peavy was signed to a contract extension, Greg Maddux was brought back, the Terrmel Sledge experiment ended, not to mention some potential pitching and bench depth was added. Guess FF must have forgotten when treading water became an above average effort. Either Milton Bradley or Kosuke Fukudome could have made the grade a B+ or better; a pre- or in-season move could still push the Friars to the next level, but FF thinks KT will stay the course until he has a better feel for Hairston and Headley.

**Bonds Failed Drug Test**

News reports on February 14th state that "home run king" Barry Bonds tested positive for steroids during the season he broke Mark McGwire's single season homer record with 73. This news comes one season after the free agent Bonds broke Hank Aaron's all time record. FF is once again very pleased with the Padres organization's decision not to consider bringing "Barroids" to play LF this season.

UPDATE: This is now being reported as a mistake.

Clark San Diego Bound

Tony Clark and the Padres have apparently reached an agreement in principle for a one year deal at just under $1M. The gi-normous switch hitting Clark, at 6'7" and 240 pounds, is a native San Diegean and former 1st round pick of the Detroit Tigers in 1990 (second overall). He finished third in balloting for 1996's Rookie of the Year honors in swatting 27 bombs to complement 72 RBI. Coming off the bench for Arizona last year, Clark posted a .821 OPS with 17 home runs and 51 RBI. The addition figures to allow Adrian Gonzalez to get a bit more time off in the upcoming season, hopefully keeping Gonzalez more fresh down the stretch than was the case in the 2007 campaign, per the graph below.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

Read Alderson's Lips: No Barry Bonds

God bless Sandy Alderson, who has made it possible for FF to continue on as Friar fans with the following quote from the San Diego Union-Tribune:

“We have no intention of signing Bonds, and that's not a decision predicated on popular opinion, or one based on commercial success, but what we feel is appropriate for the franchise... This is something we're not prepared to consider.”

Looking For Lumber Off The Pine

The Padres are busy searching for a big bat off the bench and it appears that the final 2 players are veterans with San Diego ties. Mark Sweeney has (who reside in Rancho) played his entire career with the Kansas City Royals as a 1st baseman and DH. Sweeney is a 5 time All Star who has battled the injury bug the past couple seasons. The slugger was at Petco earlier this week to workout for Padres brass.

The second player who might be joining the Friars is SDSU Alum Tony Clark. The switch hitting Clark has spent the past couple seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks and seems to always hurt the Pads late in games with his stick.

The question with each player is where they will find a sufficient number of at bats. Both vets are first baseman by trade and will have a tough time seeing much action with raising star Adrian Gonzalez planted at that position. With the outfield still in doubt one might think one of these players could find themselves roaming left field, however neither has played the OF in the bigs. FF likes the fact that either (one would have to assume that only one will join the team) player would spell Adrian against tough left handed starters and would get the majority of AB's as the DH during the interleague contests.

Greene Reportedly Extended

Many reports have been surfacing about the Padres and Khalil Greene reaching consensus on two year deal worth around $11M. As we recently discussed, Greene is apparently uninterested in extending his stay in San Diego past the length that the Friars would otherwise control him. This contract extension does not change his likely amount of time in San Diego, rather it avoids the need for arbitration this offseason and next. If anything, FF believes that this deal, potentially worth 4.5 in 2008 and 6.5 in 2009, further cements Greene's exit prior to the trade deadline (if the Frairs struggle) or next offseason (to a team with whom he is willing to negotiate). While a team in a pitcher-friendly park (i.e., Petco) can always use a slick-fielding shortstop with good pop (3 years at 15 bombs, last year at 27), Greene certainly doesn't typify the kind of player the Padres are seeking in their farm system, as evidenced by his 4-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio or his .291 on base percentage in 2007. That said, his right-handed power will be sorely missed, should he eventually be traded. Friar fans can on hope for another "gift from God" (the meaning of Khalil in his Bahá'í Faith)