Predicted Padres Pitching Prowess

The Friars are keeping the faith that their vaunted pitching staff can carry the team. That said, we thought it would be interesting to check out how the Bill James Handbook 2008 projects the staff to perform. For the club's presumed optimal starting rotation, the Handbook breaks it down as follows (Pitcher - W/L/ERA/IP/WHIP/K):

• Jake Peavy - 15 8 3.23 212 1.17 217


• Chris Young - 13 8 3.34 186 1.18 166


• Greg Maddux - 13 9 3.60 200 1.20 121


• Randy Wolf - 5 6 4.32 100 1.37 81


• Mark Prior - 5 4 3.60 75 1.23 85

Immediately striking is the similarity that the projections have in rotation spots one through three. Nobody appreciates Maddux's low walk rate more than FF, and we don't want to take anything away from him, but he hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since the 2003 season. Peavy's numbers seem overly skewed by his injury-marred 2006 campaign while the projection ignores Chris Young's iterative, season-by-season improvement trend (see graph below). Friar fans will have to hope for better returns than those suggested by the Handbook if they are to remain competitive in the NL West.

Graph from FanGraphs.com

A big part of the team's success will likely depend on the performance of the bullpen. Nobody puts together a better 'pen than Kevin Towers (if only he could do the same for right-handed power hitters, but I digress). Once again the projections seem a little high, this time looking at player - ERA/S/IP/WHIP/K per 9:

• Trevor Hoffman - 2.80 39 61 1.07 8.26


• Heath Bell - 3.10 1 83 1.16 9.70


• Cla Meredith - 3.51 0 82 1.22 6.91


• Kevin Cameron - 3.90 0 60 1.47 7.65


• Joe Thatcher - No Handbook project listed