Tomko's Likely Return is Starter Insurance

Kevin Towers expects to sign Brett Tomko, according to the Union-Tribune's Tom Krasovic:

Padres GM Kevin Towers said he expects to sign free agent Brett Tomko for a bullpen spot. “Of course, we're interested,” said Tomko, a Poway resident who has drawn inquiries from several clubs.

This move would be valuable insurance for the surgically-strained group of starters that the Friar front office is courting. The strategy is a bit of a gamble, but seems to have a tremendous upside. Several former standout pitchers have the opportunity to return from injury in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Coupled with performance-induced contracts like the one given to Randy Wolf, a $4M deal that can jump to a total value of $9M, the Padres could sport a rotation where Greg Maddux is the weak link by All Star break. The addition of Tomko provides a soft landing should Wolf or a future addition suffer a setback. Furthermore, while most of Wolf-like pitchers would probably bolt for big money if their Petco experience proves fruitful, this could be an excellent pattern that few other clubs have the facility to challenge.

How does Petco impact a pitcher? According to the Bill James Handbook 2007, a pitcher can expect to allow 23% fewer doubles, a 9% lower batting average against, 14% fewer runs allowed and 9% more strikeouts, based on 2006 numbers, which isolate the dimension changes to Petco prior to that season.